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Gremio W vs Penarol W Prediction & H2H Stats

South America South America

Brasil Ladies Cup Women 2025 Estadio do Caninde, Sao Paulo
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Rodriguez Y.
36'
Larrea S.
46'
Sub
Diaz C. In: Dominguez M.
Out: Diaz C.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Gremio W advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Gremio W
15%
Draws
0%
Penarol W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gremio W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Gremio W come out ahead of Penarol W on wins alone.
  • Model gives Gremio W a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Gremio W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Gremio W, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Gremio W Clean Sheet 68%
Penarol W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gremio W Penarol W
Matches Played 29 16
Wins 15 1
Draws 5 5
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.72 0.69
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 16, 2025 Brasil Ladies Cup Women
Gremio W vs Penarol W
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gremio W Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16

Penarol W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gremio W 95 / 100
Penarol W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gremio W Penarol W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gremio W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Penarol W conceded in 81% of 16 recent games.

Difficult form: Penarol W registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Gremio W scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Gremio W VS Penarol W
1.63 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 3
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Gremio W

(Home)
27 Sept
Gremio W
13 : 0
Forquetense W
20 Sept
Brasil de Farroupilha W
0 : 3
Gremio W
05 Sept
Sao Paulo W
2 : 0
Gremio W
29 Aug
Gremio W
0 : 0
Sao Paulo W
22 Aug
Gremio W
1 : 0
Botafogo RJ W
Page 1 of 6

Penarol W

(Away)
12 Jul
Penarol W
1 : 2
Paraguay W
09 Jul
CR Flamengo W
4 : 1
Penarol W
19 Oct
Penarol W
1 : 2
Gimnasia L.P. W
16 Oct
Gremio W
2 : 0
Penarol W
10 Oct
Independiente del Valle W
2 : 0
Penarol W
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Gremio W 2
Penarol W 0
Palmeiras W 3
Gimnasia L.P. W 2
Final
Gremio W 2
Palmeiras W 4
Penarol W 1
Gimnasia L.P. W 2