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Grimsby vs Exeter - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

League Two Blundell Park, Cleethorpes
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Doyle-Hayes J.
35' Event
Rodgers H.
Assist: Vernam C.
43'
McJannet C.

AI Match Summary

The League Two game between Grimsby and Exeter finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Grimsby.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Grimsby
20%
Draws
47%
Exeter
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Exeter

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Grimsby carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 33% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Grimsby Clean Sheet 68%
Exeter Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Grimsby Exeter
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 10 9
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.76 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.21 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 League Two
Grimsby vs Exeter
1:0
Apr 27, 2021 League Two
Exeter vs Grimsby
3:2
Dec 1, 2020 League Two
Grimsby vs Exeter
1:4
Jan 18, 2020 League Two
Grimsby vs Exeter
0:1
Sep 28, 2019 League Two
Exeter vs Grimsby
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Grimsby Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodgers H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Exeter Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Grimsby 41 / 100
Exeter 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Grimsby Exeter

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Grimsby Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Grimsby found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Exeter's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Grimsby stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Grimsby VS Exeter
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Grimsby

(Home)
31 Oct
Grimsby
5 : 2
York City
24 Oct
Gillingham
1 : 4
Grimsby
20 Oct
Rochdale
2 : 2
Grimsby
17 Oct
Grimsby
0 : 2
Northampton
10 Oct
Port Vale
1 : 0
Grimsby
Page 1 of 6

Exeter

(Away)
31 Oct
Salford
2 : 1
Exeter
24 Oct
Exeter
2 : 1
Fleetwood Town
20 Oct
Exeter
2 : 0
Crewe
17 Oct
Colchester
0 : 0
Exeter
10 Oct
Shrewsbury
0 : 1
Exeter
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Salford 14 10 1 3 25:15 31
2 Barnet 13 7 5 1 28:18 26
3 Walsall 13 5 7 1 21:12 22
4 Crewe 14 5 7 2 17:17 22
5 Cheltenham 14 6 3 5 23:25 21
6 Grimsby 14 5 5 4 24:18 20
7 York City 14 5 5 4 24:21 20
8 Gillingham 14 5 5 4 20:19 20
9 Accrington 14 4 7 3 23:17 19
10 Chesterfield 14 5 4 5 24:21 19
11 Tranmere 14 4 7 3 19:17 19
12 Exeter 14 5 4 5 11:9 19
13 Swindon 14 5 4 5 15:17 19
14 Newport 14 4 6 4 20:17 18
15 Shrewsbury 14 5 3 6 17:22 18
16 Fleetwood Town 14 4 5 5 18:18 17
17 Bristol Rovers 14 5 1 8 17:23 16
18 Oldham 14 4 3 7 15:19 15
19 Port Vale 12 4 3 5 10:14 15
20 Rochdale 14 4 3 7 17:26 15
21 Northampton 13 3 5 5 9:10 14
22 Rotherham 14 2 6 6 18:25 12
23 Colchester 13 2 6 5 12:19 12
24 Crawley Town 12 2 3 7 13:21 9
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)