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Stadium Background

Grimsby vs Exeter

England England

League Two Blundell Park, Cleethorpes
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Doyle-Hayes J.
35' Event
Rodgers H.
Assist: Vernam C.
43'
McJannet C.

AI Match Summary

The League Two game between Grimsby and Exeter finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Grimsby.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Grimsby
20%
Draws
23%
Exeter
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Grimsby

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Grimsby carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Grimsby are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Grimsby Clean Sheet 68%
Exeter Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Grimsby Exeter
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 18 5
Draws 9 11
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.82 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 League Two
Grimsby vs Exeter
1:0
Apr 27, 2021 League Two
Exeter vs Grimsby
3:2
Dec 1, 2020 League Two
Grimsby vs Exeter
1:4
Jan 18, 2020 League Two
Grimsby vs Exeter
0:1
Sep 28, 2019 League Two
Exeter vs Grimsby
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Grimsby Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodgers H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Exeter Compare

Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Grimsby 68 / 100
Exeter 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Grimsby Exeter

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Grimsby Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Grimsby's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Defensive concern: Exeter conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Grimsby stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Grimsby VS Exeter
1.63 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Grimsby

(Home)
15 Aug
Grimsby
1 : 0
Exeter
08 Aug
Grimsby
1 : 3
Blackpool
04 Aug
Grimsby
3 : 2
Grimsby Borough
01 Aug
Grimsby
2 : 0
Wigan
29 Jul
Boston United
0 : 0
Grimsby
Page 1 of 7

Exeter

(Away)
15 Aug
Grimsby
1 : 0
Exeter
10 Aug
Plymouth
2 : 0
Exeter
01 Aug
Exeter
1 : 1
Bristol City
31 Jul
Torquay
2 : 1
Exeter
25 Jul
Weston-super-Mare
0 : 2
Exeter
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barnet 2 2 0 0 6:2 6
2 Crewe 2 2 0 0 2:0 6
3 Walsall 2 1 1 0 3:0 4
4 Tranmere 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
5 Colchester 2 1 1 0 4:3 4
6 York City 2 1 1 0 4:3 4
7 Swindon 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
8 Grimsby 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
9 Fleetwood Town 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
10 Bristol Rovers 2 1 0 1 7:6 3
11 Newport 2 1 0 1 6:5 3
12 Oldham 2 1 0 1 3:2 3
13 Exeter 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
14 Cheltenham 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
15 Crawley Town 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
16 Chesterfield 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
17 Rotherham 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
18 Northampton 2 0 1 1 0:1 1
19 Accrington 2 0 1 1 2:4 1
20 Port Vale 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
21 Gillingham 2 0 1 1 0:3 1
22 Salford 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
23 Rochdale 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
24 Shrewsbury 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)