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Grimsby vs Northampton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

League Two Blundell Park, Cleethorpes
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Grimsby host Northampton in the League Two. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Grimsby at 1.69 goals for, 1.1 against; Northampton at 0.74 for, 1.74 against. Head-to-head, Grimsby have won 1 to Northampton's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Feb 18, 2023, ending 1:2. xG projections (1.31 - 1.00) back Grimsby to edge this. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Grimsby
15%
Draws
49%
Northampton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Northampton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Grimsby come out ahead of Northampton on wins alone.
  • Grimsby are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular League Two form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Grimsby Clean Sheet 20%
Northampton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Grimsby Northampton
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 12 3
Draws 9 5
Losses 8 19
Goals Scored 1.69 0.74
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.74
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2023 League Two
Northampton vs Grimsby
1:2
Aug 6, 2022 League Two
Grimsby vs Northampton
1:1
Feb 29, 2020 League Two
Grimsby vs Northampton
0:3
Nov 23, 2019 League Two
Northampton vs Grimsby
2:0
Mar 16, 2019 League Two
Grimsby vs Northampton
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Grimsby 42 / 100
Northampton 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Grimsby Northampton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Grimsby found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Northampton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 27 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Northampton has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Grimsby VS Northampton
1.63 Goals Scored 0.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Grimsby

(Home)
06 Oct
Grimsby
0 : 1
Burton
03 Oct
Grimsby
1 : 2
Shrewsbury
26 Sept
Newport
2 : 1
Grimsby
22 Sept
Notts County
2 : 1
Grimsby
19 Sept
Grimsby
2 : 0
Crawley Town
Page 1 of 6

Northampton

(Away)
06 Oct
Cambridge Utd
2 : 1
Northampton
19 Sept
Northampton
0 : 1
Rotherham
12 Sept
Shrewsbury
2 : 0
Northampton
05 Sept
Northampton
1 : 0
Newport
01 Sept
Northampton
1 : 1
Crawley Town
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Salford 9 5 1 3 13:10 16
2 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17:10 15
3 Crewe 9 3 6 0 11:7 15
4 Cheltenham 9 4 3 2 16:14 15
5 Bristol Rovers 9 5 0 4 14:14 15
6 York City 8 4 2 2 16:10 14
7 Walsall 8 3 5 0 11:5 14
8 Chesterfield 9 4 2 3 15:12 14
9 Grimsby 9 3 4 2 13:10 13
10 Gillingham 9 3 4 2 11:9 13
11 Rochdale 9 4 1 4 10:11 13
12 Tranmere 9 2 5 2 12:12 11
13 Swindon 9 3 2 4 9:13 11
14 Shrewsbury 9 3 2 4 9:14 11
15 Newport 9 2 4 3 12:12 10
16 Accrington 9 2 4 3 13:14 10
17 Rotherham 9 2 4 3 11:12 10
18 Fleetwood Town 9 2 4 3 9:10 10
19 Colchester 8 2 4 2 10:12 10
20 Exeter 9 2 3 4 5:6 9
21 Oldham 8 2 1 5 9:13 7
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3:6 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3:9 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6:13 4
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)