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Grobina vs BFC Daugavpils

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Grobiņas pilsētas stadions, Grobina
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Ayebadiepreye D.
21'
Rupeiks K.
43'
Ribeiro J.

AI Match Summary

Grobina in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Grobina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Grobina
15%
Draws
65%
BFC Daugavpils
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: BFC Daugavpils

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to BFC Daugavpils lately — more wins on the board than Grobina.
  • 65% — that's where the model lands on BFC Daugavpils taking it.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Grobina Clean Sheet 10%
BFC Daugavpils Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Grobina BFC Daugavpils
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 5 12
Draws 9 7
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 0.76 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Virsliga
Grobina vs BFC Daugavpils
1:0
Jun 20, 2026 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina
1:0
May 2, 2026 Virsliga
Grobina vs BFC Daugavpils
1:1
Mar 7, 2026 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina
0:1
Sep 15, 2025 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Grobina Compare

Top Goalscorer Corryn M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

BFC Daugavpils Compare

Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Grobina 10 / 100
BFC Daugavpils 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Grobina BFC Daugavpils

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BFC Daugavpils Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

BFC Daugavpils let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Grobina found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

Grobina went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Grobina VS BFC Daugavpils
1.25 Goals Scored 2.38
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Grobina

(Home)
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
21 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 1
Grobina
17 Aug
FK Auda Riga
3 : 2
Grobina
10 Aug
RFS
6 : 1
Grobina
02 Aug
Riga FC
4 : 0
Grobina
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BFC Daugavpils

(Away)
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
22 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
14 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 1
Ogre United
08 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 0
Tukums 2000
01 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 1
Jelgava
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 26 21 3 2 65:20 66
2 Riga FC 26 20 5 1 79:24 65
3 FK Auda Riga 27 16 5 6 44:27 53
4 BFC Daugavpils 28 10 7 11 33:32 37
5 FK Liepaja 27 11 4 12 36:39 37
6 Jelgava 28 8 7 13 32:47 31
7 Super Nova 26 8 5 13 27:38 29
8 Grobina 28 5 9 14 20:50 24
9 Tukums 2000 28 4 8 16 41:58 20
10 Ogre United 26 3 5 18 26:68 14
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)