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Grobina vs BFC Daugavpils - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Virsliga Grobiņas pilsētas stadions, Grobina
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Match Events

16'
Ayebadiepreye D.
21'
Rupeiks K.
43'
Ribeiro J.

AI Match Summary

Grobina in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Grobina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Grobina
20%
Draws
61%
BFC Daugavpils
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: BFC Daugavpils

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to BFC Daugavpils lately — more wins on the board than Grobina.
  • 61% — that's where the model lands on BFC Daugavpils taking it.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Grobina Clean Sheet 17%
BFC Daugavpils Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Grobina BFC Daugavpils
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 12
Draws 9 8
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 0.9 1.34
Goals Conceded 2 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Virsliga
Grobina vs BFC Daugavpils
1:0
Jun 20, 2026 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina
1:0
May 2, 2026 Virsliga
Grobina vs BFC Daugavpils
1:1
Mar 7, 2026 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina
0:1
Sep 15, 2025 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Grobina Compare

Top Goalscorer Corryn M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

BFC Daugavpils Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Grobina 10 / 100
BFC Daugavpils 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Grobina BFC Daugavpils

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BFC Daugavpils Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

BFC Daugavpils let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Grobina found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Grobina went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Grobina VS BFC Daugavpils
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Grobina

(Home)
01 Nov
RFS
3 : 0
Grobina
26 Oct
Grobina
2 : 5
Riga FC
17 Oct
Grobina
3 : 2
Ogre United
10 Oct
Super Nova
2 : 1
Grobina
20 Sept
Tukums 2000
1 : 1
Grobina
Page 1 of 6

BFC Daugavpils

(Away)
01 Nov
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 0
Tukums 2000
25 Oct
Jelgava
0 : 1
BFC Daugavpils
19 Oct
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 1
FK Auda Riga
11 Oct
Ogre United
1 : 2
BFC Daugavpils
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 35 28 5 2 87:24 89
2 Riga FC 35 25 8 2 95:33 83
3 FK Auda Riga 35 21 7 7 61:38 70
4 BFC Daugavpils 35 14 9 12 42:37 51
5 FK Liepaja 35 13 9 13 49:49 48
6 Super Nova 35 11 6 18 35:53 39
7 Jelgava 35 8 8 19 37:61 32
8 Grobina 35 6 11 18 27:64 29
9 Tukums 2000 35 5 10 20 44:67 25
10 Ogre United 35 4 7 24 34:85 19
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)