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Grom Nowy Staw vs Chemik Bydgoszcz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Grom Nowy Staw host Chemik Bydgoszcz in the III Liga - Group II. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Grom Nowy Staw have averaged 2.37 scored and 2.16 conceded recently, against Chemik Bydgoszcz's 1.64 scored and 1.82 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. The numbers (2.63 xG vs 2.13) point toward Grom Nowy Staw. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Grom Nowy Staw
35%
Draws
32%
Chemik Bydgoszcz
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Grom Nowy Staw's 2.37 goals per match outpaces what Chemik Bydgoszcz have produced (1.64).
  • Model gives Grom Nowy Staw a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 37%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Grom Nowy Staw Clean Sheet 10%
Chemik Bydgoszcz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Grom Nowy Staw Chemik Bydgoszcz
Matches Played 19 28
Wins 8 8
Draws 2 8
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 2.37 1.64
Goals Conceded 2.16 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Grom Nowy Staw 40 / 100
Chemik Bydgoszcz 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Grom Nowy Staw Chemik Bydgoszcz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Grom Nowy Staw's goal record stands at 95% scoring rate across 19 recent games.

Chemik Bydgoszcz has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Grom Nowy Staw stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Grom Nowy Staw VS Chemik Bydgoszcz
2.88 Goals Scored 1.38
2.88 Goals Conceded 2.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 75%
100% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Grom Nowy Staw

(Home)
03 Oct
Grom Nowy Staw
1 : 3
Baltyk Koszalin
26 Sept
Kotwica Kornik
1 : 3
Grom Nowy Staw
19 Sept
Grom Nowy Staw
5 : 0
Swinoujscie
11 Sept
Luzino
5 : 1
Grom Nowy Staw
05 Sept
Grom Nowy Staw
4 : 4
Polonia Sroda Wielkopol
Page 1 of 4

Chemik Bydgoszcz

(Away)
03 Oct
Lipno Steszew
0 : 1
Chemik Bydgoszcz
26 Sept
Chemik Bydgoszcz
3 : 3
Blekitni Stargard
19 Sept
Chemik Bydgoszcz
1 : 1
KKS Kalisz
12 Sept
Victoria Wrzesnia
2 : 2
Chemik Bydgoszcz
05 Sept
Chemik Bydgoszcz
2 : 2
Baltyk Koszalin
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Polonia Sroda Wielkopol 12 9 3 0 35:16 30
2 Luzino 12 9 1 2 34:13 28
3 Kluczevia Stargard 11 6 1 4 19:18 19
4 Blekitni Stargard 11 5 3 3 27:19 18
5 Wda Swiecie 11 5 3 3 15:17 18
6 KKS Kalisz 11 4 5 2 16:15 17
7 Notec Czarnkow 11 5 1 5 18:15 16
8 Lech Poznan II 9 4 3 2 17:15 15
9 Baltyk Koszalin 11 4 3 4 15:15 15
10 Swinoujscie 12 4 2 6 15:21 14
11 Unia Swarzedz 11 4 1 6 20:19 13
12 Grom Nowy Staw 12 4 1 7 28:29 13
13 Elana Torun 12 3 4 5 17:22 13
14 Chemik Bydgoszcz 11 2 6 3 17:21 12
15 Gedania Gdansk 11 2 5 4 23:24 11
16 Victoria Wrzesnia 12 2 5 5 12:23 11
17 Kotwica Kornik 11 3 1 7 18:32 10
18 Lipno Steszew 11 1 2 8 11:23 5
Promotion - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 (Relegation - Play Offs)