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Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Akron
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Sandoval S.
44'
Garza J.
46'
Sub
Sanchez Guevara D. A. In: Lainez D.
Out: Sanchez Guevara D. A.

AI Match Summary

Guadalajara Chivas in this Liga MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Guadalajara Chivas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Guadalajara Chivas
20%
Draws
38%
Tigres UANL
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Guadalajara Chivas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Guadalajara Chivas lately — more wins on the board than Tigres UANL.
  • Model gives Guadalajara Chivas a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Guadalajara Chivas Clean Sheet 12%
Tigres UANL Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guadalajara Chivas Tigres UANL
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 13
Draws 7 6
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.5 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Liga MX
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL
2:0
May 3, 2026 Liga MX
Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas
3:1
Apr 11, 2026 Liga MX
Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas
4:1
Sep 18, 2025 Liga MX
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL
0:0
Jan 26, 2025 Liga MX
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guadalajara Chivas Compare

Top Goalscorer Sandoval S.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Tigres UANL Compare

Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guadalajara Chivas 40 / 100
Tigres UANL 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guadalajara Chivas Tigres UANL

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guadalajara Chivas found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Tigres UANL has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Guadalajara Chivas stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guadalajara Chivas VS Tigres UANL
1.5 Goals Scored 2.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
UNAM Pumas6
Club America6
Pachuca3
Toluca0
Guadalajara Chivas3
Tigres UANL3
Cruz Azul4
Atlas2
Semi-finals
UNAM Pumas1
Pachuca1
Guadalajara Chivas3
Cruz Azul4
Final
UNAM Pumas1
Cruz Azul2