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Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Estadio Akron, Zapopan
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
11:07 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Guadalajara Chivas host Tigres UANL in the Liga MX. Little to choose between these two on current form. Guadalajara Chivas have averaged 1.72 scored and 1.03 conceded recently, against Tigres UANL's 1.38 scored and 1.13 conceded. Head-to-head, Guadalajara Chivas have won 1 to Tigres UANL's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on May 10, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.44 xG vs 0.94) point toward Guadalajara Chivas. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Guadalajara Chivas
35%
Draws
24%
Tigres UANL
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Guadalajara Chivas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Tigres UANL haven't matched Guadalajara Chivas's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Guadalajara Chivas a 41% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Guadalajara Chivas Clean Sheet 20%
Tigres UANL Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guadalajara Chivas Tigres UANL
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 14 13
Draws 8 8
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.72 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Liga MX
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL
2:0
May 3, 2026 Liga MX
Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas
3:1
Apr 11, 2026 Liga MX
Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas
4:1
Sep 18, 2025 Liga MX
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL
0:0
Jan 26, 2025 Liga MX
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guadalajara Chivas 58 / 100
Tigres UANL 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guadalajara Chivas Tigres UANL

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guadalajara Chivas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guadalajara Chivas's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Tigres UANL has conceded goals in 66% of their last 32 outings.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Solid form: Guadalajara Chivas remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Guadalajara Chivas VS Tigres UANL
2.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Guadalajara Chivas

(Home)
05 Oct
Guadalajara Chivas
2 : 0
Club America
26 Sept
Guadalajara Chivas
0 : 2
Queretaro
20 Sept
Club America
2 : 2
Guadalajara Chivas
14 Sept
Guadalajara Chivas
3 : 0
UNAM Pumas
05 Sept
Atletico San Luis
0 : 3
Guadalajara Chivas
Page 1 of 6

Tigres UANL

(Away)
27 Sept
Tigres UANL
1 : 0
Puebla
19 Sept
Juarez
2 : 0
Tigres UANL
13 Sept
Monterrey
0 : 0
Tigres UANL
06 Sept
Tigres UANL
1 : 1
Necaxa
30 Aug
Santos Laguna
0 : 0
Tigres UANL
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club America 9 6 2 1 21:10 20
2 Toluca 11 6 2 3 25:15 20
3 Guadalajara Chivas 10 5 3 2 17:10 18
4 Club Leon 11 5 3 3 15:12 18
5 Queretaro 9 5 2 2 13:8 17
6 Atlas 10 5 2 3 16:17 17
7 Cruz Azul 10 5 1 4 19:18 16
8 Puebla 11 4 3 4 12:13 15
9 Club Tijuana 9 4 2 3 14:13 14
10 Monterrey 9 4 1 4 16:14 13
11 Tigres UANL 11 3 4 4 13:15 13
12 Pachuca 10 3 3 4 15:11 12
13 UNAM Pumas 10 3 3 4 14:16 12
14 Atletico San Luis 10 3 3 4 14:18 12
15 Atlante 10 2 5 3 12:15 11
16 Santos Laguna 10 3 1 6 10:15 10
17 Necaxa 10 2 2 6 12:20 8
18 Juarez 10 1 0 9 7:25 3
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