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Guadalupe vs Alajuelense

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Coyella Fonseca, San José
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Zaldivar A.
25' Event
Bran Flores A. J.
44' Event
Zaldivar A.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Division 2025/2026 game between Guadalupe and Alajuelense finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alajuelense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Guadalupe
6%
Draws
90%
Alajuelense
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Alajuelense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Alajuelense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Alajuelense a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Primera Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Guadalupe Clean Sheet 10%
Alajuelense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guadalupe Alajuelense
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 4 9
Draws 9 10
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 0.5 1.88
Goals Conceded 2 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Guadalupe
1:1
Jan 28, 2026 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Alajuelense
1:3
Sep 21, 2025 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Alajuelense
0:0
Aug 4, 2025 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Guadalupe
1:0
May 7, 2023 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Alajuelense
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guadalupe Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Alajuelense Compare

Top Goalscorer Zaldivar A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bran Flores A. J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guadalupe 10 / 100
Alajuelense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guadalupe Alajuelense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LDA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alajuelense has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Guadalupe's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Guadalupe went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guadalupe VS Alajuelense
0.5 Goals Scored 1.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Guadalupe

(Home)
26 Apr
Guadalupe
0 : 5
Cartagines
23 Apr
Saprissa
5 : 0
Guadalupe
18 Apr
Guadalupe
1 : 0
Zeledon
13 Apr
San Carlos
4 : 0
Guadalupe
06 Apr
Alajuelense
1 : 1
Guadalupe
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Alajuelense

(Away)
26 Jul
Sporting FC
1 : 1
Alajuelense
12 Jul
Alajuelense
0 : 1
Herediano
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
24 Apr
Alajuelense
5 : 2
Puntarenas FC
19 Apr
Alajuelense
1 : 1
Saprissa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Herediano18122426:1038
2Saprissa18104434:1934
3Liberia18103524:1833
4Cartagines18102626:2032
5Alajuelense1875628:2026
6Sporting FC1864816:2122
7San Carlos1863921:2521
8Puntarenas FC18441022:2916
9Zeledon1828819:3014
10Guadalupe18351013:3714
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)