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Guadalupe vs Carmelita - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Liga de Ascenso
Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
Hidalgo P.

AI Match Summary

The Liga de Ascenso game between Guadalupe and Carmelita finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carmelita.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Guadalupe
20%
Draws
47%
Carmelita
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Carmelita

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Carmelita's 1.19 goals per match outpaces what Guadalupe have produced (0.97).
  • Carmelita are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Liga de Ascenso form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Guadalupe Clean Sheet 10%
Carmelita Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guadalupe Carmelita
Matches Played 29 26
Wins 6 6
Draws 8 8
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 0.97 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Guadalupe
0:2
Aug 25, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Guadalupe vs Carmelita
0:1
Mar 27, 2019 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Carmelita
1:1
Feb 3, 2019 Primera Division
Carmelita vs Guadalupe
4:1
Nov 4, 2018 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Carmelita
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guadalupe Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Carmelita Compare

Top Goalscorer Hidalgo P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guadalupe 10 / 100
Carmelita 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guadalupe Carmelita

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carmelita Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Carmelita conceded in 69% of 26 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Guadalupe remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Guadalupe scored in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Guadalupe VS Carmelita
1 Goals Scored 1.75
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Guadalupe

(Home)
10 Oct
Carmelita
0 : 2
Guadalupe
04 Oct
Aserri
2 : 3
Guadalupe
27 Sept
Guadalupe
2 : 2
Pitbulls
19 Sept
Guadalupe
0 : 3
FC Moravia
13 Sept
Santa Ana
2 : 1
Guadalupe
Page 1 of 6

Carmelita

(Away)
10 Oct
Carmelita
0 : 2
Guadalupe
02 Oct
FC Moravia
0 : 3
Carmelita
26 Sept
Carmelita
1 : 0
Santa Ana
18 Sept
Carmelita
6 : 0
CS Uruguay
13 Sept
Cariari Pococi
1 : 1
Carmelita
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ADR Jicaral 9 6 3 0 15:5 21
2 Quepos FC 9 5 1 3 13:7 16
3 Grecia 8 4 2 2 9:6 14
4 AD Rosario 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
5 AD Sarchi 8 3 2 3 8:11 11
6 Santa Cruz 9 2 0 7 11:19 6
7 Cofutpa 9 1 1 7 8:17 4
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso (Apertura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Ana 11 8 0 3 19:10 24
2 Pitbulls 10 5 4 1 18:13 19
3 Cariari Pococi 11 4 4 3 12:11 16
4 Carmelita 11 4 3 4 19:13 15
5 Aserri 10 4 2 4 10:11 14
6 Guadalupe 11 3 3 5 15:19 12
7 FC Moravia 11 3 1 7 12:14 10
8 CS Uruguay 11 2 3 6 9:23 9
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso (Apertura - Play Offs)