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Guadeloupe vs Cayman Islands

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League 2024/2025 Stade Roger Zami, Le Gosier
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Bonilla J.
42'
Baron A.
65'
Sub
Seymour E. In: Suberan M.
Out: Seymour E.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Guadeloupe advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Guadeloupe
20%
Draws
46%
Cayman Islands
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cayman Islands

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Guadeloupe carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Guadeloupe have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Guadeloupe, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Guadeloupe have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Guadeloupe Clean Sheet 20%
Cayman Islands Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guadeloupe Cayman Islands
Matches Played 26 28
Wins 14 6
Draws 2 7
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.85 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.04 2.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Guadeloupe vs Cayman Islands
1:0
Nov 15, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Cayman Islands vs Guadeloupe
0:6
Oct 11, 2008 Caribbean Cup
Guadeloupe vs Cayman Islands
7:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guadeloupe Compare

Top Goalscorer Tille V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Cayman Islands Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guadeloupe 36 / 100
Cayman Islands 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guadeloupe Cayman Islands

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cayman Islands Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Guadeloupe's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Cayman Islands has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Guadeloupe stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guadeloupe VS Cayman Islands
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Guadeloupe

(Home)
24 Jun
Guadeloupe
2 : 3
Guatemala
20 Jun
Jamaica
2 : 1
Guadeloupe
16 Jun
Panama
5 : 2
Guadeloupe
26 Mar
Nicaragua
0 : 1
Guadeloupe
22 Mar
Guadeloupe
1 : 0
Nicaragua
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Cayman Islands

(Away)
25 Sept
Cayman Islands
0 : 0
Dominica
06 Jun
Gibraltar
4 : 1
Cayman Islands
30 Mar
Cayman Islands
1 : 0
Bahamas
27 Mar
Cayman Islands
1 : 1
British Virgin Islands
16 Nov
Cayman Islands
4 : 0
Anguilla
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Guadeloupe 7
Cayman Islands 0
Cuba 5
Saint Kitts and Nevis 2
French Guiana 3
Belize 4
Guyana 9
Barbados 4