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Guadiana vs Villanovense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Guadiana host Villanovense in the Tercera RFEF - Group 14. This has Villanovense written all over it on paper. Villanovense have shipped 1.07 goals a game lately, while Guadiana have conceded 2.2 and scored 0.4. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (0.71 - 1.54) back Villanovense to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Guadiana
20%
Draws
70%
Villanovense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Villanovense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Guadiana haven't matched Villanovense's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Villanovense's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Guadiana Clean Sheet 15%
Villanovense Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guadiana Villanovense
Matches Played 5 29
Wins 0 13
Draws 1 6
Losses 4 10
Goals Scored 0.4 1.41
Goals Conceded 2.2 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.71 1.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guadiana 10 / 100
Villanovense 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guadiana Villanovense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Villanovense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Villanovense conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Guadiana scored in 40% of their last 5 games.

Guadiana went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Villanovense's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Guadiana VS Villanovense
0.29 Goals Scored 1.5
1.57 Goals Conceded 1.13
57% Over 1.5 88%
29% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Guadiana

(Home)
04 Oct
CD Azuaga
4 : 0
Guadiana
27 Sept
Guadiana
1 : 1
Cabeza del Buey
20 Sept
Montijo
3 : 1
Guadiana
12 Sept
Guadiana
0 : 2
SP Villafranca
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Guadiana

Villanovense

(Away)
04 Oct
Cabeza del Buey
1 : 1
Villanovense
27 Sept
Villanovense
2 : 0
Montijo
20 Sept
SP Villafranca
0 : 1
Villanovense
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1
AD Llerenense
06 Sept
Moralo
2 : 1
Villanovense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Azuaga 5 5 0 0 14:2 15
2 Moralo 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
3 AD Llerenense 4 3 1 0 3:0 10
4 Castuera 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
5 Puebla de la Calzada 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
6 Gevora 5 2 2 1 8:9 8
7 CD Zafra 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
8 Villanovense 5 2 1 2 5:4 7
9 Santa Amalia 5 1 3 1 6:5 6
10 SP Villafranca 5 2 0 3 7:8 6
11 Montijo 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
12 Cabeza del Buey 5 1 2 2 6:6 5
13 Jerez CF 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
14 Jaraiz 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
15 Quintana 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
16 Pueblonuevo 5 0 3 2 5:10 3
17 UP Plasencia 4 0 1 3 2:8 1
18 Guadiana 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)