Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gualaceo vs EL Nacional

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B Estadio Jorge Andrade, Azogues
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Mina A.
72' Event
Mina A.
78' Event
Solis M.

AI Match Summary

Gualaceo in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gualaceo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Gualaceo
20%
Draws
19%
EL Nacional
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gualaceo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Gualaceo have won more games recently than EL Nacional.
  • Gualaceo are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Gualaceo Clean Sheet 68%
EL Nacional Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gualaceo EL Nacional
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 4
Draws 9 6
Losses 7 19
Goals Scored 1.03 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.59 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Serie B
Gualaceo vs EL Nacional
3:0
Jul 24, 2026 Serie B
EL Nacional vs Gualaceo
0:0
May 2, 2026 Serie B
Gualaceo vs EL Nacional
2:0
Nov 12, 2023 Liga Pro
EL Nacional vs Gualaceo
4:2
Jun 4, 2023 Liga Pro
Gualaceo vs EL Nacional
3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gualaceo Compare

Top Goalscorer Mina A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Solis M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

EL Nacional Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gualaceo 77 / 100
EL Nacional 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gualaceo EL Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gualaceo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

EL Nacional let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Gualaceo went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Gualaceo scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Gualaceo VS EL Nacional
1.75 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Gualaceo

(Home)
19 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 0
LDU Portoviejo
10 Sept
Cumbaya
0 : 1
Gualaceo
04 Sept
22 de Julio
0 : 3
Gualaceo
29 Aug
Gualaceo
3 : 0
EL Nacional
20 Aug
CD Cuenca Juniors
0 : 3
Gualaceo
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EL Nacional

(Away)
18 Sept
Dep. Santo Domingo
1 : 0
EL Nacional
12 Sept
EL Nacional
3 : 0
22 de Julio
05 Sept
EL Nacional
0 : 2
LDU Portoviejo
29 Aug
Gualaceo
3 : 0
EL Nacional
20 Aug
Independiente Juniors
1 : 1
EL Nacional
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