Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gualaceo vs Vinotinto

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B Estadio Jorge Andrade
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gualaceo play Vinotinto in the Serie B. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gualaceo averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. Vinotinto averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Gualaceo won 3, Vinotinto won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jul 1, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Gualaceo and 1.13 for Vinotinto. This points to a Gualaceo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Gualaceo
23%
Draws
33%
Vinotinto
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Gualaceo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Gualaceo picked up more points recently compared to Vinotinto.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Gualaceo Clean Sheet 21%
Vinotinto Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gualaceo Vinotinto
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 9
Draws 7 7
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 0.93 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 1, 2026 Serie B
Vinotinto vs Gualaceo
1:2
Apr 18, 2026 Serie B
Gualaceo vs Vinotinto
0:0
Aug 14, 2025 Copa Ecuador
Gualaceo vs Vinotinto
2:1
Sep 18, 2024 Serie B
Gualaceo vs Vinotinto
1:0
Aug 1, 2024 Serie B
Vinotinto vs Gualaceo
2:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gualaceo 44 / 100
Vinotinto 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gualaceo Vinotinto

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Gualaceo or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gualaceo attacking → ← attacking Vinotinto

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gualaceo scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Vinotinto let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Gualaceo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Vinotinto lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 34
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nueve de Octubre1585219:1129
2Atletico FC1568117:1226
3CD Cuenca Juniors1675418:1826
4Independiente Juniors1566317:1124
5Cumbaya1656519:1621
6Vinotinto1555520:1320
7San Antonio1547418:1519
8LDU Portoviejo1654714:2019
9Dep. Santo Domingo1556412:1018
10Gualaceo1565413:1017
1122 de Julio153398:216
12EL Nacional1604129:271