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Guangdong XI vs Hong Kong Prediction & H2H Stats

Hong Kong Hong Kong

Guangdong - Hong Kong Cup
Sat, Jan 3, 2026
3 - 2
08:30 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Jiang Zhipeng
(Penalty)
35' Event
Yi Xianlong
61' Event
Sun Ming-Him

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. The second leg ended 3-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Guangdong XI
20%
Draws
36%
Hong Kong
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Guangdong XI

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Hong Kong come out ahead of Guangdong XI on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Hong Kong arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Guangdong XI, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Guangdong XI Clean Sheet 10%
Hong Kong Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guangdong XI Hong Kong
Matches Played 8 32
Wins 4 14
Draws 2 6
Losses 2 12
Goals Scored 1.75 1.81
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 3, 2026 Guangdong - Hong Kong Cup
Guangdong XI vs Hong Kong
3:2
Dec 28, 2025 Guangdong - Hong Kong Cup
Hong Kong vs Guangdong XI
2:2
Jan 22, 2025 Guangdong - Hong Kong Cup
Hong Kong vs Guangdong XI
1:2
Jan 15, 2025 Guangdong - Hong Kong Cup
Guangdong XI vs Hong Kong
1:1
Feb 7, 2024 Guangdong - Hong Kong Cup
Guangdong XI vs Hong Kong
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guangdong XI Compare

Top Goalscorer Yi Xianlong
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Hong Kong Compare

Top Goalscorer Sun Ming-Him
1 Goals
Assists Leader Huang W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guangdong XI 30 / 100
Hong Kong 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guangdong XI Hong Kong

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Guangdong XI went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Guangdong XI scored in 75% of their last 8 games.

Hong Kong let in goals in 59% of their last 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

Guangdong XI VS Hong Kong
2.5 Goals Scored 1.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
100% Over 2.5 50%
100% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Guangdong XI

(Home)
03 Jan
Guangdong XI
3 : 2
Hong Kong
28 Dec
Hong Kong
2 : 2
Guangdong XI
22 Jan
Hong Kong
1 : 2
Guangdong XI
15 Jan
Guangdong XI
1 : 1
Hong Kong
07 Feb
Guangdong XI
4 : 1
Hong Kong
Page 1 of 2

Hong Kong

(Away)
30 Sept
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Brunei
27 Sept
Hong Kong
4 : 0
Laos
09 Jun
Cambodia
2 : 0
Hong Kong
05 Jun
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Mongolia
31 Mar
India
2 : 1
Hong Kong
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Hong Kong 4
Guangdong XI 5