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Stadium Background

Guarani-MG vs Patrocinense

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 2
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Nascimento W.
83' Event
Almeida M.

AI Match Summary

The Mineiro 2 game between Guarani-MG and Patrocinense finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Patrocinense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Guarani-MG
15%
Draws
26%
Patrocinense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Guarani-MG

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Guarani-MG come out ahead of Patrocinense on wins alone.
  • 59% — that's where the model lands on Guarani-MG taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Guarani-MG Clean Sheet 20%
Patrocinense Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarani-MG Patrocinense
Matches Played 40 30
Wins 22 8
Draws 7 6
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.48 0.67
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Mineiro 2
Patrocinense vs Guarani-MG
0:1
Jun 6, 2026 Mineiro 2
Guarani-MG vs Patrocinense
0:2
Feb 17, 2019 Mineiro
Patrocinense vs Guarani-MG
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarani-MG Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Patrocinense Compare

Top Goalscorer Nascimento W.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Almeida M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarani-MG 76 / 100
Patrocinense 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarani-MG Patrocinense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarani-MG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Patrocinense let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Guarani-MG remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Patrocinense's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Guarani-MG VS Patrocinense
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarani-MG

(Home)
12 Jul
Guarani-MG
2 : 4
Boa
04 Jul
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Guarani-MG
01 Jul
Mamore
2 : 2
Guarani-MG
27 Jun
Guarani-MG
2 : 0
Caldense
23 Jun
Uberaba
2 : 1
Guarani-MG
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Patrocinense

(Away)
25 Jul
Democrata SL
2 : 1
Patrocinense
19 Jul
Patrocinense
1 : 4
Democrata SL
12 Jul
Mamore
1 : 0
Patrocinense
04 Jul
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Guarani-MG
01 Jul
Caldense
1 : 2
Patrocinense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uberaba 10 7 2 1 17:9 23
2 Boa 10 5 2 3 12:9 17
3 Mamore 10 3 3 4 8:9 12
4 Patrocinense 10 3 3 4 9:9 12
5 Guarani-MG 10 3 3 4 12:14 12
6 Caldense 10 1 3 6 6:14 6
Promotion - Mineiro 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Mineiro 3 2027 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Valeriodoce 10 5 5 0 9:4 20
2 Democrata SL 10 5 2 3 19:10 17
3 Aymores 10 4 4 2 17:9 16
4 Villa Nova AC 10 4 2 4 17:12 14
5 Coimbra Esporte Clube 10 2 4 4 12:12 10
6 Ipatinga 10 1 1 8 6:33 -2
Promotion - Mineiro 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Mineiro 3 2027 (Main)