Sport Picks
Guarani vs Cerro Porteno
Paraguay
Copa de Primera Estadio Rogelio Livieres, Asunción 
Match Events
38'
38'
Fernandez D.
Assist: Arrua C.
44'
44'
Canete Torres A. D.
Assist: Aliseda I.
46'
46'
Sub
Bobadilla C. In: Gamarra A.
Out: Bobadilla C.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
37%
30%
33%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Guarani
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Cerro Porteno carry the better recent record into this one.
- 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Cerro Porteno arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Cerro Porteno, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Guarani Clean Sheet 20%
Cerro Porteno Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Guarani | Cerro Porteno |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 13 |
| Draws | 11 | 7 |
| Losses | 8 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.97 | 1.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.86 | 0.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 Copa de Primera
Guarani vs Cerro Porteno
1:1
May 11, 2026 Copa de Primera
Cerro Porteno vs Guarani
0:0
Mar 7, 2026 Copa de Primera
Guarani vs Cerro Porteno
0:2
Nov 2, 2025 Copa de Primera
Cerro Porteno vs Guarani
1:0
Aug 16, 2025 Copa de Primera
Guarani vs Cerro Porteno
3:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Guarani Compare
Top Goalscorer Fernandez D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Cerro Porteno Compare
Top Goalscorer Canete Torres A. D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Guarani 32 / 100
Cerro Porteno 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Guarani Cerro Porteno
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Guarani went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Guarani scored in 69% of their last 29 games.
H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.
Cerro Porteno let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.
Scoring Trends
Guarani VS Cerro Porteno
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Guarani
(Home) 25 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
0 : 1 Guarani
18 Sept
Sportivo Trinidense
0 : 1 Guarani
12 Sept
Guarani
1 : 1 Cerro Porteno
07 Sept
Guarani
2 : 0 Recoleta
02 Sept
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 1 Guarani
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Guarani
1 : 1 Cerro Porteno
07 Sept
Guarani
2 : 0 Recoleta
30 Aug
Guarani
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
15 Aug
Guarani
2 : 3 Rubio Nu
02 Aug
Guarani
2 : 1 Libertad Asuncion
Page 1 of 3
Cerro Porteno
(Away) 26 Sept
Sportivo Trinidense
2 : 1 Cerro Porteno
19 Sept
Cerro Porteno
1 : 0 Rubio Nu
12 Sept
Guarani
1 : 1 Cerro Porteno
07 Sept
Cerro Porteno
1 : 0 Nacional Asuncion
03 Sept
Recoleta
1 : 3 Cerro Porteno
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Sportivo Trinidense
2 : 1 Cerro Porteno
12 Sept
Guarani
1 : 1 Cerro Porteno
03 Sept
Recoleta
1 : 3 Cerro Porteno
27 Aug
Resistencia
0 : 1 Cerro Porteno
23 Aug
Olimpia Asuncion
2 : 1 Cerro Porteno
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21:9 | 25 |
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 19:13 | 23 |
| 3 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19:7 | 22 |
| 4 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 14:13 | 22 |
| 5 | Guarani | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 13:9 | 20 |
| 6 | Sportivo Trinidense | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20:11 | 20 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 14:13 | 18 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteno | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15:12 | 17 |
| 9 | Sp. Luqueno | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 12:21 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio Nu | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13:23 | 9 |
| 11 | Recoleta | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13:24 | 8 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3:21 | 2 |
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
