Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Guarani vs Ituano

Brazil Brazil

Serie C Estádio Brinco de Ouro, Campinas
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Gabriel William
29'
Razera
30'
Neto Berola

AI Match Summary

Ituano in this Serie C matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ituano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Guarani
30%
Draws
31%
Ituano
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Guarani

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Guarani have won more games recently than Ituano.
  • Guarani are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Guarani Clean Sheet 68%
Ituano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarani Ituano
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 10
Draws 9 7
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.39 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Serie C
Guarani vs Ituano
1:3
Jul 13, 2025 Serie C
Guarani vs Ituano
0:0
Oct 5, 2024 Serie B
Ituano vs Guarani
1:0
Jun 18, 2024 Serie B
Guarani vs Ituano
3:3
Jan 27, 2024 Paulista
Ituano vs Guarani
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarani Compare

Top Goalscorer Nathan Melo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Ituano Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel William
1 Goals
Assists Leader Neto Berola
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarani 59 / 100
Ituano 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarani Ituano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GUA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarani found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Ituano has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Guarani went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guarani VS Ituano
1.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarani

(Home)
27 Jul
Guarani
3 : 1
Internacional de Limeira
12 Jul
Paysandu PA
3 : 2
Guarani
04 Jul
Guarani
0 : 0
Floresta EC
28 Jun
Figueirense
1 : 1
Guarani
22 Jun
Confianca
2 : 0
Guarani
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Ituano

(Away)
08 Aug
Ituano
2 : 0
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
26 Jul
Brusque
1 : 0
Ituano
12 Jul
Ituano
1 : 3
Ferroviaria
04 Jul
Santa Cruz
1 : 0
Ituano
28 Jun
Ituano
0 : 0
Maranhao
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Internacional de Limeira 16 8 4 4 20:17 28
2 Brusque 16 8 3 5 22:17 27
3 Botafogo PB 16 8 2 6 23:18 26
4 Guarani 15 7 5 3 28:15 26
5 Santa Cruz 16 7 4 5 17:13 25
6 Ypiranga FC 16 7 3 6 22:20 24
7 SER Caxias do Sul 16 6 6 4 16:12 24
8 Ferroviaria 16 6 6 4 17:14 24
9 Paysandu PA 15 7 2 6 23:21 23
10 Amazonas 16 7 2 7 18:20 23
11 Maringa FC 16 6 5 5 28:28 23
12 Ituano 16 6 4 6 18:17 22
13 Floresta EC 16 5 6 5 17:19 21
14 Maranhao 16 5 6 5 13:15 21
15 Figueirense 16 5 6 5 15:20 21
16 Volta Redonda 16 5 3 8 11:21 18
17 Itabaiana 16 4 5 7 13:20 17
18 Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 16 3 6 7 17:19 15
19 Anapolis 15 3 3 9 13:19 12
20 Confianca 15 3 3 9 9:15 12
Promotion - Serie C (Second stage)
Relegation - Serie D 2027 (Main)