Sport Picks
Guarany de Bage vs Brasil de Pelotas
Brazil
Copa FGF Estádio Estrela d'Alva, Bage 
Match Events
26'
26'
Marcos Paulo
42'
42'
Gabriel Morbeck
(Penalty)
66'
66'
Venicio
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-3. This leg finished 3-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
30%
35%
35%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Brasil de Pelotas lately — more wins on the board than Guarany de Bage.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- Brasil de Pelotas arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Guarany de Bage, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Guarany de Bage Clean Sheet 13%
Brasil de Pelotas Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Guarany de Bage | Brasil de Pelotas |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 6 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 13 |
| Losses | 16 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 0.63 | 1.18 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.47 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.40 | 1.65 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 17, 2026 Copa FGF
Guarany de Bage vs Brasil de Pelotas
3:3
May 13, 2026 Copa FGF
Brasil de Pelotas vs Guarany de Bage
2:0
Jun 29, 2025 Serie D
Guarany de Bage vs Brasil de Pelotas
1:0
May 18, 2025 Serie D
Brasil de Pelotas vs Guarany de Bage
0:0
Jan 25, 2025 Gaucho
Brasil de Pelotas vs Guarany de Bage
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Guarany de Bage Compare
Top Goalscorer Marcos Paulo
1 Goals Assists Leader Hiago Lucas
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.7
Brasil de Pelotas Compare
Top Goalscorer Venicio
1 Goals Assists Leader Denis Germano
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.5
Avg xA / game 0.92
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Guarany de Bage 31 / 100
Brasil de Pelotas 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Guarany de Bage Brasil de Pelotas
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.
Solid form: Guarany de Bage remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Attacking prowess: Guarany de Bage scored in 47% of their last 30 outings.
Brasil de Pelotas let in goals in 57% of their last 28 matches.
Scoring Trends
Guarany de Bage VS Brasil de Pelotas
1.67 Goals Scored 1.63
1.67 Goals Conceded 1.13
67% Over 1.5 75%
67% Over 2.5 38%
33% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Guarany de Bage
(Home) 17 Jun
Guarany de Bage
3 : 3 Brasil de Pelotas
14 Jun
GE Bage
1 : 2 Guarany de Bage
07 Jun
Guarany de Bage
0 : 1 Cianorte
03 Jun
Farroupilha
1 : 1 Guarany de Bage
30 May
Joinville
2 : 0 Guarany de Bage
Page 1 of 6
17 Jun
Guarany de Bage
3 : 3 Brasil de Pelotas
07 Jun
Guarany de Bage
0 : 1 Cianorte
27 May
Guarany de Bage
0 : 0 Farroupilha
24 May
Guarany de Bage
0 : 4 FC Cascavel
20 May
Guarany de Bage
0 : 1 GE Bage
Page 1 of 3
Brasil de Pelotas
(Away) 01 Sept
Apafut
1 : 1 Brasil de Pelotas
27 Aug
Brasil de Pelotas
2 : 2 Brasil de Farroupilha
22 Aug
Brasil de Pelotas
1 : 0 Aimore
19 Aug
Esportivo Bento Goncalves
2 : 1 Brasil de Pelotas
12 Aug
Brasil de Pelotas
1 : 1 Gramadense
Page 1 of 6
01 Sept
Apafut
1 : 1 Brasil de Pelotas
19 Aug
Esportivo Bento Goncalves
2 : 1 Brasil de Pelotas
09 Aug
Passo Fundo
0 : 0 Brasil de Pelotas
06 Aug
EC Guarani
0 : 2 Brasil de Pelotas
12 Jul
Gramadense
1 : 0 Brasil de Pelotas
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gramadense | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9:7 | 11 |
| 2 | Santa Cruz RS | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10:7 | 10 |
| 3 | Monsoon | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 4 | Brasil de Farroupilha | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5:7 | 4 |
Promotion - Copa FGF (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brasil de Pelotas | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | 14 |
| 2 | GE Bage | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6:6 | 8 |
| 3 | Guarany de Bage | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6:8 | 6 |
| 4 | Farroupilha | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3:9 | 3 |
Promotion - Copa FGF (Play Offs)
