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Guarany SE vs Barra SE

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2025
Guarany SE Logo

Guarany SE

1 - 0
FT
Barra SE Logo

Barra SE

Our Tip

Match Events

64' Event
Palhinha
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano 2025 game between Guarany SE and Barra SE finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Guarany SE.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Guarany SE
15%
Draws
51%
Barra SE
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Barra SE

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Barra SE's 1.5 goals per match outpaces what Guarany SE have produced (1.1).
  • Win probability leans Guarany SE's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Sergipano 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Guarany SE Clean Sheet 19%
Barra SE Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarany SE Barra SE
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 11 11
Draws 7 6
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.1 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 26, 2025 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs Barra SE
1:0
Nov 16, 2024 Sergipano 2
Guarany SE vs Barra SE
2:1
Nov 10, 2024 Sergipano 2
Barra SE vs Guarany SE
2:2
Oct 26, 2024 Sergipano 2
Guarany SE vs Barra SE
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarany SE Compare

Top Goalscorer Palhinha
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Barra SE Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarany SE 58 / 100
Barra SE 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarany SE Barra SE

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarany SE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Barra SE's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 26 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Barra SE's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Guarany SE scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Guarany SE VS Barra SE
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 3
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarany SE

(Home)
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
29 Jul
Falcon
3 : 0
Guarany SE
Page 1 of 6

Barra SE

(Away)
01 Mar
Itabaiana
4 : 2
Barra SE
22 Feb
Barra SE
0 : 2
Dorense
15 Feb
Confianca
8 : 1
Barra SE
09 Feb
Barra SE
1 : 0
America de Propria
03 Feb
Barra SE
3 : 2
Carmopolis
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Confianca 9 6 2 1 26:8 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 4 0 18:7 19
3 Lagarto 9 5 2 2 20:8 17
4 America de Propria 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 4 1 4 9:19 13
6 Falcon 9 4 0 5 11:15 12
7 Sergipe 9 3 2 4 10:11 11
8 Dorense 9 2 2 5 7:12 8
9 Barra SE 9 2 1 6 8:27 7
10 Carmopolis 9 0 3 6 10:16 3
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)