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Guarany SE vs Dorense Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano
Guarany SE Logo

Guarany SE

3 - 1
FT
Dorense Logo

Dorense

Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
da Silva F.
9' Event
Aldair
65' Event
Kaio Henrique
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano game between Guarany SE and Dorense finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Guarany SE.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Guarany SE
15%
Draws
36%
Dorense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Guarany SE

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Dorense haven't matched Guarany SE's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Guarany SE's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Sergipano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Guarany SE Clean Sheet 68%
Dorense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarany SE Dorense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 7 5
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.1 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.66 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs Dorense
3:1
Feb 8, 2025 Sergipano
Dorense vs Guarany SE
1:2
Jan 19, 2019 Sergipano
Dorense vs Guarany SE
0:0
Feb 21, 2016 Sergipano
Dorense vs Guarany SE
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarany SE Compare

Top Goalscorer da Silva F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kaio Henrique
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

Dorense Compare

Top Goalscorer Aldair
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarany SE 95 / 100
Dorense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarany SE Dorense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarany SE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dorense has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Away concern: Dorense has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Guarany SE scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Guarany SE VS Dorense
0.75 Goals Scored 0.86
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.57
50% Over 1.5 86%
25% Over 2.5 86%
13% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarany SE

(Home)
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
29 Jul
Falcon
3 : 0
Guarany SE
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Dorense

(Away)
14 Feb
Atletico Gloriense
5 : 0
Dorense
11 Feb
Dorense
1 : 2
Confianca
07 Feb
Sergipe
2 : 1
Dorense
04 Feb
Itabaiana
3 : 0
Dorense
31 Jan
Dorense
1 : 0
Falcon
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 13:6 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 2 2 12:4 17
3 Lagarto 9 4 4 1 16:8 16
4 Confianca 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 3 3 3 10:10 12
6 America de Propria 9 2 6 1 8:8 12
7 Falcon 9 3 2 4 8:10 11
8 Atletico Gloriense 9 3 1 5 14:13 10
9 Dorense 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
10 Desportiva Aracaju 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)