Sport Picks

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Guarda FC vs Machico

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2024/2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Guarda FC play Machico in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Guarda FC averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. Machico averaged 1.11 goals scored and 1.16 conceded. In past meetings, Guarda FC won 1, Machico won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 16, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.42 for Guarda FC and 0.99 for Machico. This points to a Machico double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Guarda FC
21%
Draws
42%
Machico
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Machico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Guarda FC picked up more points recently compared to Machico.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.42 vs 0.99 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 61%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Guarda FC Clean Sheet 23%
Machico Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 55%
Second Half Goal 58%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarda FC Machico
Matches Played 29 38
Wins 10 15
Draws 5 9
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.1 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.16

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 16, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Machico vs Guarda FC
1:0
Nov 30, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Guarda FC vs Machico
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarda FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandes R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Camara J. C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Machico Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarda FC 38 / 100
Machico 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarda FC Machico

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Machico or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.9%
3.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Guarda FC attacking → ← attacking Machico

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarda FC scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Machico let in goals in 63% of their last 38 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Guarda FC went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Machico lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 54
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Leca26195252:1762
2AD Marco 0926165535:1653
3SC Salgueiros26165539:1853
4Cinfaes26118733:2541
5Beira Mar26109731:2839
6Uniao Lamas261151031:2738
7FC Alpendorada261061026:2436
8Machico2698928:2735
9Camacha26811730:3535
10Guarda FC26951226:3032
11Gondomar26871116:2831
12Coimbroes26561524:4321
13Maritimo B26451725:4917
14Regua26152016:458