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Guarnizo vs Cayon CD

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3
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Match Events

69' Event
Lemes L. V.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 game between Guarnizo and Cayon CD finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cayon CD.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Guarnizo
30%
Draws
58%
Cayon CD
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Cayon CD

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Guarnizo have managed 1.32 goals a game lately — Cayon CD are scoring more at 1.59.
  • Win probability leans Cayon CD's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Guarnizo Clean Sheet 15%
Cayon CD Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarnizo Cayon CD
Matches Played 37 34
Wins 18 18
Draws 12 5
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.32 1.59
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs Cayon CD
0:1
Apr 2, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs Cayon CD
1:0
Nov 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Cayon CD vs Guarnizo
1:1
Mar 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Cayon CD vs Guarnizo
1:3
Oct 26, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs Cayon CD
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarnizo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Cayon CD Compare

Top Goalscorer Lemes L. V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarnizo 10 / 100
Cayon CD 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarnizo Cayon CD

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cayon CD Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Guarnizo scored in 78% of their last 37 outings.

Cayon CD has conceded goals in 62% of their last 34 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: Guarnizo remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Guarnizo VS Cayon CD
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarnizo

(Home)
12 Sept
Guarnizo
0 : 1
Cayon CD
06 Sept
Atletico Mineros
2 : 1
Guarnizo
24 May
CD Tropezon
3 : 0
Guarnizo
17 May
Guarnizo
0 : 0
CD Tropezon
09 May
Bezana
1 : 1
Guarnizo
Page 1 of 8

Cayon CD

(Away)
12 Sept
Guarnizo
0 : 1
Cayon CD
05 Sept
Cayon CD
0 : 1
Vimenor
29 Aug
CD Revilla
0 : 0
Cayon CD
26 Aug
Cayon CD
4 : 1
Bansander
21 Aug
Selaya
0 : 3
Cayon CD
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bezana 3 3 0 0 8:3 9
2 Vimenor 3 3 0 0 7:2 9
3 CD Tropezon 3 3 0 0 7:2 9
4 CD Revilla 3 2 1 0 8:2 7
5 Cayon CD 3 2 0 1 3:1 6
6 Castro 3 1 2 0 4:2 5
7 Torina 2 1 1 0 4:1 4
8 Velarde 3 1 1 1 2:4 4
9 CD Laredo 2 1 0 1 3:2 3
10 Atletico Mineros 3 1 0 2 2:7 3
11 UD Samano 2 0 1 1 3:4 1
12 CD Barquereno 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
13 UM Escobedo 2 0 1 1 1:4 1
14 Selaya 2 0 1 1 0:3 1
15 Naval Reinosa 3 0 1 2 2:6 1
16 Guarnizo 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
17 Atletico Albericia 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
18 Solares 3 0 0 3 1:6 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 (Play Offs)