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Guarnizo vs CD Barquereno

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Revilla A.
40' Event
Ocejo G.
61' Event
Ruiz J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 game between Guarnizo and CD Barquereno finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Guarnizo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Guarnizo
30%
Draws
47%
CD Barquereno
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: CD Barquereno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Guarnizo come out ahead of CD Barquereno on wins alone.
  • Guarnizo are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Guarnizo here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Guarnizo Clean Sheet 20%
CD Barquereno Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarnizo CD Barquereno
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 7
Draws 7 5
Losses 6 17
Goals Scored 1.31 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Barquereno vs Guarnizo
0:1
Dec 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs CD Barquereno
2:1
May 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Barquereno vs Guarnizo
5:3
Dec 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs CD Barquereno
3:0
Jun 13, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Barquereno vs Guarnizo
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarnizo Compare

Top Goalscorer Ocejo G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ruiz J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

CD Barquereno Compare

Top Goalscorer Revilla A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarnizo 42 / 100
CD Barquereno 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarnizo CD Barquereno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Barquereno let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Guarnizo's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Away concern: CD Barquereno has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Guarnizo VS CD Barquereno
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarnizo

(Home)
20 Sept
UD Samano
4 : 1
Guarnizo
12 Sept
Guarnizo
0 : 1
Cayon CD
06 Sept
Atletico Mineros
2 : 1
Guarnizo
24 May
CD Tropezon
3 : 0
Guarnizo
17 May
Guarnizo
0 : 0
CD Tropezon
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CD Barquereno

(Away)
20 Sept
Torina
3 : 0
CD Barquereno
13 Sept
CD Barquereno
0 : 1
Velarde
05 Sept
UD Samano
2 : 2
CD Barquereno
09 May
CD Barquereno
1 : 5
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
03 May
CD Revilla
1 : 1
CD Barquereno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 34 26 5 3 86:15 83
2 CD Laredo 34 21 8 5 63:28 71
3 CD Tropezon 34 21 4 9 50:27 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 47:26 66
5 UM Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65:43 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 47:36 59
7 Atletico Albericia 34 17 5 12 61:45 56
8 Cayon CD 34 17 5 12 50:41 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 39:40 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 43:38 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 44:47 38
12 Selaya 34 8 8 18 32:44 32
13 CD Revilla 34 8 7 19 35:63 31
14 CD Barquereno 34 8 6 20 37:64 30
15 UC Cartes 34 6 10 18 28:52 28
16 CD Colindres 34 6 10 18 27:47 28
17 CD Montanas del Pas 34 6 8 20 35:87 26
18 SD Noja 34 4 7 23 22:68 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 (Play Offs)