Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 3

Guarnizo

4 - 1

SD Noja

Our Tip

Match Events

22'

Ceballos A.

35'

Somaza D.

58'

Rubi

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 game between Guarnizo and SD Noja finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Guarnizo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Guarnizo

Draws

SD Noja

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Guarnizo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Guarnizo carry the better recent record into this one.
90% — that's where the model lands on Guarnizo taking it.
Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%

Guarnizo Clean Sheet 68%

SD Noja Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Guarnizo	SD Noja
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	18	4
Draws	8	5
Losses	5	21
Goals Scored	1.75	0.5
Goals Conceded	0.5	2.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3

Guarnizo vs SD Noja

Possession: 43% - 54% Cards: 2 - 2

4:1

Dec 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3

SD Noja vs Guarnizo

Possession: 55% - 52% Cards: 3 - 1

0:1

Jan 16, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 3

Guarnizo vs SD Noja

Possession: 43% - 59% Cards: 2 - 1

1:1

Sep 19, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 3

SD Noja vs Guarnizo

Possession: 56% - 43% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

Mar 25, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 3

Guarnizo vs SD Noja

Possession: 41% - 57% Cards: 1 - 4

0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarnizo Compare

Top Goalscorer Ceballos A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Somaza D.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

SD Noja Compare

Top Goalscorer Rubi

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.45

Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarnizo 95 / 100

SD Noja 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Guarnizo SD Noja

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GUA Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 2:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarnizo found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: SD Noja conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Solid form: Guarnizo remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Guarnizo VS SD Noja

1.75 Goals Scored 0.5

0.5 Goals Conceded 2.5

50% Over 1.5 75%

38% Over 2.5 63%

25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gimnastic de Torrelavega	34	26	5	3	86:15	83
2	CD Laredo	34	21	8	5	63:28	71
3	CD Tropezon	34	21	4	9	50:27	67
4	Guarnizo	34	19	9	6	47:26	66
5	UM Escobedo	34	21	2	11	65:43	65
6	Vimenor	34	17	8	9	47:36	59
7	Atletico Albericia	34	17	5	12	61:45	56
8	Cayon CD	34	17	5	12	50:41	56
9	Torina	34	15	8	11	39:40	53
10	Bezana	34	13	8	13	43:38	47
11	Castro	34	10	8	16	44:47	38
12	Selaya	34	8	8	18	32:44	32
13	SD Revilla	34	8	7	19	35:63	31
14	CD Barquereno	34	8	6	20	37:64	30
15	UC Cartes	34	6	10	18	28:52	28
16	CD Colindres	34	6	10	18	27:47	28
17	CD Montanas del Pas	34	6	8	20	35:87	26
18	SD Noja	34	4	7	23	22:68	19