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Guatemala vs Canada - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League
Sat, Nov 14, 2026
VS
02:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the CONCACAF Nations League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Canada have shipped 0.78 goals a game lately, while Guatemala have conceded 1.45 and scored 1.67. Head-to-head, Guatemala have won 1 to Canada's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Jan 18, 2026, ending 1:0. The numbers (1.00 xG vs 1.44) point toward Canada. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Guatemala
15%
Draws
48%
Canada
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Canada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Canada carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Guatemala's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Canada arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Guatemala Clean Sheet 16%
Canada Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guatemala Canada
Matches Played 33 32
Wins 15 17
Draws 6 8
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.67 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.45 0.78
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Friendly International
Canada vs Guatemala
1:0
Jun 29, 2025 Gold Cup
Canada vs Guatemala
1:2
Jul 2, 2023 Gold Cup
Guatemala vs Canada
0:0
Jan 23, 2022 Friendly International
Guatemala vs Canada
0:0
Mar 27, 2015 Friendly International
Canada vs Guatemala
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guatemala 57 / 100
Canada 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guatemala Canada

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guatemala Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guatemala scored in 73% of their last 33 games.

Recent resilience: Guatemala stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Canada's defensive record shows goals conceded in 50% of 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Guatemala VS Canada
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Guatemala

(Home)
06 Oct
Guatemala
1 : 0
Suriname
02 Oct
Suriname
0 : 0
Guatemala
29 Sept
Guatemala
6 : 0
El Salvador
26 Sept
Jamaica
3 : 2
Guatemala
07 Jun
Ecuador
3 : 0
Guatemala
Page 1 of 7

Canada

(Away)
07 Oct
USA
1 : 0
Canada
03 Oct
Canada
2 : 0
Peru
26 Sept
Canada
1 : 0
Chile
04 Jul
Canada
0 : 3
Morocco
28 Jun
South Africa
0 : 1
Canada
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Mexico -
Jamaica -
Panama -
Curacao -
USA -
Haiti -
Canada -
Guatemala -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -