Sport Picks
Match Events
20'
20'
Varone I.
46'
46'
Sub
Cecotti T. In: Rigo M.
Out: Cecotti T.
51'
51'
Rigo M.
AI Match Summary
Gubbio in this Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gubbio.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gubbio
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Gubbio lately — more wins on the board than Carpi.
- Win probability leans Gubbio's way, sitting at 50%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Gubbio here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Gubbio Clean Sheet 68%
Carpi Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Gubbio | Carpi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 27 |
| Wins | 10 | 6 |
| Draws | 10 | 7 |
| Losses | 10 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 0.8 | 0.85 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.87 | 1.37 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 4, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Gubbio vs Carpi
2:1
Oct 25, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Carpi vs Gubbio
0:3
Mar 29, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Carpi vs Gubbio
0:2
Nov 17, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Gubbio vs Carpi
1:0
Apr 3, 2021 Serie C - Group B
Gubbio vs Carpi
0:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Gubbio Compare
Top Goalscorer Varone I.
1 Goals Assists Leader Hraiech S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Carpi Compare
Top Goalscorer Lombardi L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Gubbio 59 / 100
Carpi 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Gubbio Carpi
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Gubbio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Carpi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 27 matches.
Attacking prowess: Gubbio scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Gubbio went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Gubbio VS Carpi
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Gubbio
(Home) 14 Aug
Pineto
1 : 2 Gubbio
29 Jul
Gubbio
2 : 0 Sporting Trestina
22 Jul
Fiorentina
1 : 0 Gubbio
03 May
Pineto
2 : 1 Gubbio
26 Apr
Gubbio
2 : 0 Pineto
Page 1 of 6
29 Jul
Gubbio
2 : 0 Sporting Trestina
26 Apr
Gubbio
2 : 0 Pineto
11 Apr
Gubbio
1 : 1 Pianese
29 Mar
Gubbio
0 : 2 Ravenna
15 Mar
Gubbio
1 : 3 Ascoli
Page 1 of 3
Carpi
(Away) 09 Aug
Mantova
0 : 1 Carpi
01 Aug
Carpi
1 : 2 Pistoiese
25 Jul
Cesena
1 : 0 Carpi
26 Apr
Guidonia 1937
2 : 3 Carpi
18 Apr
Carpi
0 : 1 Forli FC
Page 1 of 6
09 Aug
Mantova
0 : 1 Carpi
25 Jul
Cesena
1 : 0 Carpi
26 Apr
Guidonia 1937
2 : 3 Carpi
12 Apr
Vis Pesaro
3 : 0 Carpi
14 Mar
Livorno
2 : 2 Carpi
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arezzo | 36 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 64:24 | 80 |
| 2 | Ascoli | 36 | 23 | 8 | 5 | 63:23 | 77 |
| 3 | Ravenna | 36 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 50:30 | 73 |
| 4 | Campobasso | 36 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 49:37 | 59 |
| 5 | Juventus U23 | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 46:43 | 53 |
| 6 | Pianese | 36 | 11 | 17 | 8 | 37:34 | 50 |
| 7 | Pineto | 36 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 42:45 | 50 |
| 8 | Gubbio | 36 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 31:32 | 48 |
| 9 | Ternana | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 44:40 | 48 |
| 10 | Vis Pesaro | 36 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 38:36 | 46 |
| 11 | Livorno | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 39:51 | 43 |
| 12 | Forli FC | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 41:52 | 40 |
| 13 | Carpi | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 35:48 | 40 |
| 14 | Perugia | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 38:44 | 38 |
| 15 | Guidonia 1937 | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 30:36 | 38 |
| 16 | Sambenedettese | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 30:37 | 37 |
| 17 | Sassari Torres | 36 | 6 | 18 | 12 | 32:45 | 36 |
| 18 | Bra | 36 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 37:54 | 32 |
| 19 | US Pontedera | 36 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 27:62 | 20 |
| 20 | Rimini | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)
