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Gucha Stars vs Mombasa United

Kenya Kenya

Super League
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AI Match Summary

Mombasa United in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mombasa United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Gucha Stars
40%
Draws
29%
Mombasa United
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mombasa United lately — more wins on the board than Gucha Stars.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
Gucha Stars Clean Sheet 20%
Mombasa United Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gucha Stars Mombasa United
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 19
Draws 7 3
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 0.5 0.63
Goals Conceded 1 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Super League
Gucha Stars vs Mombasa United
0:1
Dec 21, 2025 Super League
Mombasa United vs Gucha Stars
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gucha Stars 32 / 100
Mombasa United 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gucha Stars Mombasa United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Gucha Stars has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Gucha Stars's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Mombasa United let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Gucha Stars VS Mombasa United
0.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 25%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Gucha Stars

(Home)
13 Jun
Gucha Stars
3 : 2
Talanta FC
07 Jun
Fortune Sacco
1 : 0
Gucha Stars
01 Jun
Gucha Stars
2 : 1
Darajani Gogo
27 May
Vihiga United
1 : 0
Gucha Stars
23 May
Gucha Stars
2 : 1
Luanda Villa
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Mombasa United

(Away)
13 Jun
Naivas FC
1 : 1
Mombasa United
07 Jun
Mombasa United
1 : 0
Nzoia Sugar
01 Jun
Luanda Villa
1 : 0
Mombasa United
27 May
Mombasa United
0 : 0
3K FC
24 May
Mwatate United
0 : 1
Mombasa United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Migori38256757:2981
23K FC38238762:2677
3Mombasa United382441051:3276
4Equity Bank382111656:2874
5MOFA381616651:3064
6Fortune Sacco381891161:4163
7Naivas FC3817101147:3061
8Talanta FC381691353:4157
9Kibera381581532:3353
10Soy United3814101431:2752
11Nzoia Sugar3812141237:3650
12Gucha Stars381281835:4144
13Luanda Villa381271930:5143
14Kabati381091932:5239
15Kisumu All-Stars381091923:4739
16Nairobi City Stars389121732:4439
17Darajani Gogo381082027:4838
18MCF389101924:4234
19Vihiga United38992029:5530
20Mwatate United38672527:6425
Promotion - Premier League 2026/2027 (Main)