Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gudja vs Mgarr

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2025/2026 Centenary Stadium, Ta' Qali
Gudja Logo

Gudja

0 - 0
FT
Mgarr Logo

Mgarr

Our Tip

Match Events

90'
Crescencio L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Challenge League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Gudja
15%
Draws
34%
Mgarr
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gudja

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Mgarr have won more games recently than Gudja.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Challenge League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Gudja have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Gudja Clean Sheet 68%
Mgarr Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gudja Mgarr
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 11
Draws 9 7
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.3 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Challenge League
Mgarr vs Gudja
0:2
Feb 14, 2026 Challenge League
Gudja vs Mgarr
0:0
Sep 15, 2024 Challenge League
Mgarr vs Gudja
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gudja 41 / 100
Mgarr 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gudja Mgarr

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gudja Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gudja's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Mgarr's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Mgarr lost 3 of their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Gudja VS Mgarr
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gudja

(Home)
19 Sept
Vittoriosa
2 : 0
Gudja
13 Sept
Gudja
0 : 3
Melita
18 Apr
Vittoriosa
2 : 3
Gudja
12 Apr
Mgarr
0 : 2
Gudja
04 Apr
Gudja
1 : 2
Zebbug
Page 1 of 6

Mgarr

(Away)
19 Sept
Melita
1 : 2
Mgarr
13 Sept
Mgarr
1 : 3
Tarxien
18 Apr
Zurrieq
4 : 2
Mgarr
12 Apr
Mgarr
0 : 2
Gudja
06 Apr
Mgarr
1 : 1
Santa Lucia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Balzan FC 15 11 2 2 37:10 35
2 Melita 15 10 2 3 36:17 32
3 Birzebbuga 15 10 1 4 29:15 31
4 Sirens 15 9 2 4 39:19 29
5 Swieqi 15 9 2 4 32:23 29
6 Fgura 15 8 1 6 33:24 25
7 Pieta 15 7 3 5 27:21 24
8 St. Andrews 15 7 2 6 19:23 23
9 Mgarr 15 6 4 5 28:24 22
10 Gudja 15 5 7 3 16:13 22
11 Santa Lucia 15 4 6 5 27:25 18
12 Zurrieq 15 4 2 9 21:27 14
13 Vittoriosa 15 3 3 9 17:24 12
14 Marsa 15 2 4 9 18:28 8
15 Zebbug 15 2 2 11 9:37 8
16 Mtarfa 15 1 1 13 9:67 -2
Promotion - Challenge League 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Challenge League 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)