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Gudja vs Mtarfa Prediction & H2H Stats

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2025/2026 Centenary Stadium, Ta' Qali
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Match Events

10' Event
Formosa M.
28' Event
Shola H. S.
(Penalty)
75' Event
Agbakwuru J. C.

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League 2025/2026 game between Gudja and Mtarfa finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gudja.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Gudja
15%
Draws
0%
Mtarfa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gudja

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Gudja carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Gudja a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Challenge League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Gudja have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Gudja Clean Sheet 68%
Mtarfa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gudja Mtarfa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 5
Draws 9 2
Losses 11 23
Goals Scored 1.3 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.43 3.53
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Challenge League
Gudja vs Mtarfa
3:0
Dec 20, 2025 Challenge League
Mtarfa vs Gudja
0:3
Apr 6, 2025 Challenge League
Gudja vs Mtarfa
1:3
Feb 9, 2025 Challenge League
Gudja vs Mtarfa
3:1
Oct 25, 2014 FA Trophy
Mtarfa vs Gudja
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gudja Compare

Top Goalscorer Formosa M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Agbakwuru J. C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.31
Avg xA / game 1.5

Mtarfa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gudja 95 / 100
Mtarfa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gudja Mtarfa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gudja Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gudja's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Mtarfa let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Mtarfa's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Gudja VS Mtarfa
1.5 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 4.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Gudja

(Home)
19 Sept
Vittoriosa
2 : 0
Gudja
13 Sept
Gudja
0 : 3
Melita
18 Apr
Vittoriosa
2 : 3
Gudja
12 Apr
Mgarr
0 : 2
Gudja
04 Apr
Gudja
1 : 2
Zebbug
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Mtarfa

(Away)
19 Apr
Mtarfa
1 : 5
Santa Lucia
11 Apr
Marsa
5 : 0
Mtarfa
01 Apr
Mtarfa
0 : 1
Vittoriosa
15 Mar
Gudja
3 : 0
Mtarfa
07 Mar
Mtarfa
0 : 2
Zurrieq
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