Sport Picks

Italy

Serie C - Group B Stadio Citta dell Aria

Livorno

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Guidonia 1937 play Livorno in the Serie C - Group B. It looks like a close match. Recently, Guidonia 1937 averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1 conceded. Livorno averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, Guidonia 1937 won 2, Livorno won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 17, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Guidonia 1937 and 1.00 for Livorno. This points to a Livorno double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%

Guidonia 1937

23%

Draws

40%

Livorno

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Livorno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Guidonia 1937 picked up more points recently compared to Livorno.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 45%

Over 3.5 Goals 27%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

Guidonia 1937 Clean Sheet 23%

Livorno Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Guidonia 1937	Livorno
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	6	10
Draws	13	6
Losses	10	12
Goals Scored	0.9	1.25
Goals Conceded	1	1.43
Expected Goals (xG)	0.63	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Serie C - Group B

Guidonia 1937 vs Livorno

Possession: 54% - 46% Cards: 4 - 3

0:2

Sep 7, 2025 Serie C - Group B

Livorno vs Guidonia 1937

Possession: 45% - 60% Cards: 2 - 1

0:1

Dec 18, 2024 Coppa Italia Serie D

Livorno vs Guidonia 1937

Possession: 45% - 48% Cards: 0 - 4

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guidonia 1937 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48

Avg xA / game 0.32

Livorno Compare

Top Goalscorer Dionisi F.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Biondi K.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guidonia 1937 38 / 100

Livorno 39 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Guidonia 1937 Livorno

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Livorno or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +27.6%

3.45

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.2%

2.56

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Guidonia 1937 attacking → ← attacking Livorno

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guidonia 1937 scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Livorno let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Guidonia 1937 went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Livorno lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 36

0.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arezzo	36	24	8	4	64:24	80
2	Ascoli	36	23	8	5	63:23	77
3	Ravenna	36	22	7	7	50:30	73
4	Campobasso	36	17	10	9	49:37	59
5	Juventus U23	36	14	11	11	46:43	53
6	Pianese	36	11	17	8	37:34	50
7	Pineto	36	13	11	12	42:45	50
8	Gubbio	36	11	15	10	31:32	48
9	Ternana	36	14	11	11	44:40	48
10	Vis Pesaro	36	11	13	12	38:36	46
11	Livorno	36	12	7	17	39:51	43
12	Forli FC	36	10	10	16	41:52	40
13	Carpi	36	10	10	16	35:48	40
14	Perugia	36	8	14	14	38:44	38
15	Guidonia 1937	36	8	14	14	30:36	38
16	Sambenedettese	36	8	13	15	30:37	37
17	Sassari Torres	36	6	18	12	32:45	36
18	Bra	36	6	14	16	37:54	32
19	US Pontedera	36	3	11	22	27:62	20
20	Rimini	0	0	0	0	0:0	0