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Guijuelo vs Palencia CA

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Guijuelo play Palencia CA in the Tercera RFEF - Group 8. It looks like a close match. Recently, Guijuelo averaged 1.62 goals scored and 0.82 conceded. Palencia CA averaged 1.33 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. In past meetings, Guijuelo won 2, Palencia CA won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 26, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Guijuelo and 1.06 for Palencia CA. This points to a Guijuelo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Guijuelo
18%
Draws
38%
Palencia CA
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Guijuelo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Guijuelo picked up more points recently compared to Palencia CA.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Guijuelo Clean Sheet 22%
Palencia CA Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guijuelo Palencia CA
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 21 17
Draws 6 5
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.62 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.82 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Guijuelo vs Palencia CA
1:2
Dec 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Palencia CA vs Guijuelo
1:2
Jan 22, 2023 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Palencia CA vs Guijuelo
3:0
Sep 4, 2022 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Guijuelo vs Palencia CA
1:0
Aug 3, 2019 Club Friendly
Palencia CA vs Guijuelo
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guijuelo Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruiz J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Palencia CA Compare

Top Goalscorer Prieto M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lupidio Arang C. T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guijuelo 44 / 100
Palencia CA 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guijuelo Palencia CA

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Guijuelo or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Guijuelo attacking → ← attacking Palencia CA

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guijuelo scored in 82% of their last 34 games.

Palencia CA let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Guijuelo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Palencia CA lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

69 Points in last 5 56
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Atletico Tordesillas34246462:2478
2Guijuelo34217654:2670
3Palencia CA34215848:2468
4Palencia CF342041059:3964
5Santa Marta Tormes34188853:3162
6Mansilles341512731:2757
7Almazan3412121049:3848
8Mirandes B341381343:3547
9La Virgen341281431:3744
10Villaralbo341191429:3742
11Leonesa B341261638:4342
12Arandina349101532:4637
13Colegios Diocesanos341061833:5436
14Bembibre348101638:5234
15Unionistas de Salamanca B346131532:4331
16CD Mojados347101728:5531
17Becerril34781941:6029
18Numancia B34662226:5624