Sport Picks

Wales

Cymru North 2025/2026

Caersws FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Guilsfield play Caersws FC in the Cymru North 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Guilsfield averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. Caersws FC averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Guilsfield won 1, Caersws FC won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 11, 2026 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Guilsfield and 1.44 for Caersws FC. This points to a Guilsfield double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%

Guilsfield

21%

Draws

38%

Caersws FC

Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Guilsfield

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Guilsfield picked up more points recently compared to Caersws FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.44 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 68%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 78%

Over 2.5 Goals 68%

Over 3.5 Goals 41%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60%

Guilsfield Clean Sheet 16%

Caersws FC Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 70%

Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Guilsfield	Caersws FC
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	12	11
Draws	4	4
Losses	14	15
Goals Scored	1.6	1.6
Goals Conceded	1.63	1.67
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.88	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Cymru North

Guilsfield vs Caersws FC

Possession: 48% - 55% Cards: 3 - 2

4:1

Oct 25, 2025 Cymru North

Caersws FC vs Guilsfield

Possession: 46% - 60% Cards: 1 - 0

0:0

Oct 5, 2024 Cymru North

Caersws FC vs Guilsfield

Possession: 50% - 41% Cards: 0 - 0

5:3

Jul 27, 2024 Cymru North

Guilsfield vs Caersws FC

Possession: 42% - 50% Cards: 2 - 2

1:2

Mar 19, 2024 Cymru North

Guilsfield vs Caersws FC

Possession: 49% - 42% Cards: 3 - 1

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guilsfield Compare

Top Goalscorer Flory S.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Knott A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Caersws FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Jones A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guilsfield 40 / 100

Caersws FC 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Guilsfield Caersws FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Guilsfield or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +24.2%

3.03

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.5%

1.61

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Guilsfield attacking → ← attacking Caersws FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guilsfield scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Caersws FC let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Guilsfield went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Caersws FC lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 37

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Llandudno FC	30	26	2	2	77:22	80
2	Airbus UK Broughton FC	30	24	3	3	93:22	75
3	Holywell Town FC	30	18	6	6	78:40	60
4	Newtown	30	15	3	12	51:49	48
5	Rhyl	30	14	4	12	46:55	46
6	Guilsfield	30	13	4	13	50:48	43
7	Mold Alexandra	30	12	5	13	38:45	41
8	Denbigh	30	12	4	14	52:59	40
9	Caersws FC	30	11	4	15	46:51	37
10	Brickfield Rangers	30	11	4	15	39:49	37
11	Holyhead	30	10	6	14	44:49	36
12	Penrhyncoch	30	10	5	15	45:53	35
13	Buckley	30	9	3	18	50:77	30
14	Flint Mountain	30	9	2	19	39:61	29
15	Gresford	30	8	4	18	47:87	28
16	Ruthin Town	30	6	5	19	36:64	23