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Guinea vs Liberia

World World

Friendly International 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

56' Event
Bangoura S.
80' Event
Diaby Y.

AI Match Summary

Guinea in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Guinea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Guinea
30%
Draws
31%
Liberia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Guinea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Liberia haven't matched Guinea's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Guinea here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Guinea Clean Sheet 20%
Liberia Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guinea Liberia
Matches Played 24 23
Wins 8 6
Draws 8 7
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.08 1
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2025 Friendly International
Guinea vs Liberia
2:0
Oct 9, 2019 WAFU Cup of Nations
Guinea vs Liberia
1:0
Jul 5, 2015 African Nations Championship
Liberia vs Guinea
1:1
Jun 22, 2015 African Nations Championship
Guinea vs Liberia
3:1
Dec 20, 1980 World Championship
Guinea vs Liberia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guinea Compare

Top Goalscorer Bangoura S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diaby Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Liberia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guinea 36 / 100
Liberia 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guinea Liberia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Liberia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Liberia conceded in 91% of 23 recent games.

Guinea's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 24 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Guinea stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guinea VS Liberia
0.88 Goals Scored 0.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Guinea

(Home)
04 Jun
Northern Ireland
1 : 0
Guinea
31 Mar
Guinea
0 : 1
Benin
27 Mar
Guinea
2 : 2
Togo
18 Nov
Guinea
1 : 1
Niger
15 Nov
Guinea
2 : 0
Liberia
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Liberia

(Away)
09 Jun
Liberia
3 : 1
Sierra Leone
06 Jun
Sierra Leone
1 : 0
Liberia
31 Mar
Liberia
2 : 2
Libya
27 Mar
Benin
1 : 0
Liberia
15 Nov
Guinea
2 : 0
Liberia
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