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Guinea W vs Mali W

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Women 2024
Guinea W Logo

Guinea W

0 - 3
FT
Mali W Logo

Mali W

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-3, with Mali W advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Guinea W
30%
Draws
39%
Mali W
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mali W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mali W come out ahead of Guinea W on wins alone.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Mali W arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Mali W, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Guinea W Clean Sheet 10%
Mali W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guinea W Mali W
Matches Played 28 36
Wins 5 15
Draws 5 9
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 1.29 2.14
Goals Conceded 2.89 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 5, 2023 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Guinea W vs Mali W
0:3
Nov 30, 2023 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Mali W vs Guinea W
7:2
Oct 25, 2021 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Guinea W vs Mali W
0:2
Oct 20, 2021 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Mali W vs Guinea W
2:2
Jun 5, 2010 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Mali W vs Guinea W
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guinea W 30 / 100
Mali W 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guinea W Mali W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mali W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.20 goals per match.

Guinea W found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Mali W conceded in 65% of 34 recent games.

Guinea W went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guinea W VS Mali W
2.5 Goals Scored 1
3 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 63%
100% Over 2.5 25%
100% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Guinea W

(Home)
26 May
Guinea W
4 : 3
Gambia W
24 May
Sierra Leone W
3 : 1
Guinea W
22 May
Senegal W
2 : 1
Guinea W
26 Feb
Cape Verde W
4 : 1
Guinea W
21 Feb
Guinea W
2 : 2
Cape Verde W
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Mali W

(Away)
06 Aug
Mali W
1 : 1
Ghana W
02 Aug
Mali W
3 : 2
Cape Verde W
29 Jul
Cameroon W
2 : 1
Mali W
20 Jul
Mali W
0 : 1
Ivory Coast W
07 Jun
Burkina Faso W
2 : 2
Mali W
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Senegal W 3
Mozambique W 2
Egypt W 8
South Sudan W 0
Central Africa W 1
Mali W 10
Guinea W 11
Mauritius W 0
Nigeria W -
Sao Tome and Principe W -
Cape Verde W 6
Liberia W 2
Uganda W 2
Algeria W 3
Burundi W 3
Ethiopia W 2
Equatorial Guinea W -
Libya W -
D.R. Congo W 4
Benin W 2
Ivory Coast W 2
Tanzania W 3
Djibouti W 0
Togo W 13
Rwanda W 0
Ghana W 12
Gambia W 2
Namibia W 5
Cameroon W 1
Kenya W 2
Gabon W 1
Botswana W 10
Tunisia W 12
Niger W 1
Guinea Bissau W 0
Congo W 3
Angola W -
Sudan W -
TBD -
Zambia W -
Eswatini W 2
Burkina Faso W 6
TBD -
South Africa W -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
Senegal W 4
Egypt W 0
Mali W 10
Guinea W 2
Nigeria W 7
Cape Verde W 1
Algeria W 6
Burundi W 1
Equatorial Guinea W 2
D.R. Congo W 3
Tanzania W 3
Togo W 2
Ghana W 3
Namibia W 2
Kenya W 1
Botswana W 2
Tunisia W 6
Congo W 3
Angola W 0
Zambia W 12
Burkina Faso W 1
South Africa W 3
TBD -
TBD -