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Guingamp vs Pau - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 2 Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Guingamp host Pau in the Ligue 2. This one's hard to separate. Pau have shipped 1.81 goals a game lately, while Guingamp have conceded 1.46 and scored 1.07. Past meetings favor Guingamp slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 17, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.31 vs 1.50, favoring Pau. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Guingamp
35%
Draws
32%
Pau
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pau lately — more wins on the board than Guingamp.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Guingamp Clean Sheet 16%
Pau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guingamp Pau
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 6 9
Draws 8 4
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.07 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.46 1.81
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2026 Ligue 2
Pau vs Guingamp
2:1
Nov 8, 2025 Ligue 2
Guingamp vs Pau
2:2
May 10, 2025 Ligue 2
Pau vs Guingamp
1:3
Oct 18, 2024 Ligue 2
Guingamp vs Pau
0:1
Apr 27, 2024 Ligue 2
Pau vs Guingamp
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guingamp 31 / 100
Pau 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guingamp Pau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guingamp scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Pau's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 26 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Guingamp has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Guingamp VS Pau
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Guingamp

(Home)
02 Oct
Guingamp
2 : 1
Le Mans
19 Sept
Guingamp
1 : 3
Red Star
12 Sept
Guingamp
2 : 1
Annecy
05 Sept
Reims
2 : 2
Guingamp
29 Aug
Guingamp
3 : 3
Nantes
Page 1 of 6

Pau

(Away)
03 Oct
Toulouse
2 : 3
Pau
18 Sept
Pau
2 : 0
Dunkerque
11 Sept
Montpellier
1 : 0
Pau
04 Sept
Pau
1 : 1
Sochaux
28 Aug
Rodez
2 : 2
Pau
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St Etienne 7 5 1 1 19:8 16
2 Red Star 7 4 2 1 9:7 14
3 Reims 7 3 4 0 15:9 13
4 Montpellier 7 3 3 1 6:5 12
5 Metz 7 2 4 1 10:7 10
6 Nancy 7 3 1 3 8:7 10
7 Annecy 7 3 1 3 9:9 10
8 Sochaux 7 2 4 1 4:5 10
9 Dijon 7 2 3 2 10:10 9
10 Pau 7 2 2 3 6:6 8
11 Guingamp 7 2 2 3 10:12 8
12 Dunkerque 7 2 2 3 10:12 8
13 Grenoble 7 2 2 3 8:11 8
14 Rodez 7 2 1 4 14:16 7
15 Nantes 7 2 1 4 9:13 7
16 Clermont 7 0 6 1 4:6 6
17 Boulogne 7 0 5 2 3:5 5
18 Laval 7 1 2 4 8:14 5
Promotion - Ligue 1 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 2027/2028 (Main)