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Guiseley vs Bury FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Pedro D.
7' Event
Evans K.
27' Event
Martin A.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division game between Guiseley and Bury FC finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Guiseley.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Guiseley
15%
Draws
42%
Bury FC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Guiseley

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bury FC come out ahead of Guiseley on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Guiseley Clean Sheet 68%
Bury FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guiseley Bury FC
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 17 19
Draws 6 1
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.9 2.43
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 18, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Guiseley vs Bury FC
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guiseley Compare

Top Goalscorer Martin A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Thewlis J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Bury FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Evans K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guiseley 41 / 100
Bury FC 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guiseley Bury FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guiseley Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Guiseley scored in 93% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Bury FC has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Guiseley stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guiseley VS Bury FC
2.38 Goals Scored 3.25
1 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Guiseley

(Home)
10 Oct
Avro
0 : 1
Guiseley
06 Oct
Ilkeston
0 : 2
Guiseley
03 Oct
Guiseley
1 : 0
Bradford PA
29 Sept
Alfreton
1 : 0
Guiseley
26 Sept
Guiseley
4 : 2
Bamber Bridge
Page 1 of 6

Bury FC

(Away)
10 Oct
Alfreton
2 : 3
Bury FC
06 Oct
Stockton
1 : 0
Bury FC
03 Oct
Bury FC
2 : 1
Bromsgrove
26 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 3
Gainsborough
19 Sept
Bury FC
5 : 1
Workington
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 13 9 3 1 30:7 30
2 Redcar Athletic 13 8 4 1 28:11 28
3 Guiseley 12 8 1 3 25:11 25
4 Avro 11 8 1 2 33:20 25
5 Curzon Ashton 11 7 1 3 23:11 22
6 Workington 13 6 3 4 23:22 21
7 Warrington Rylands 13 6 2 5 20:20 20
8 Bury FC 11 6 1 4 22:11 19
9 Gainsborough 11 6 1 4 22:15 19
10 Warrington Town 11 5 4 2 22:18 19
11 Alfreton 13 6 0 7 20:16 18
12 Lancaster 13 5 2 6 18:26 17
13 Hyde 13 4 2 7 13:23 14
14 Ashton United 11 3 4 4 14:13 13
15 Quorn 12 3 4 5 21:27 13
16 Whitby 12 4 1 7 17:32 13
17 Stockton 13 3 3 7 17:24 12
18 Leek Town 12 2 5 5 24:25 11
19 AFC Emley 12 2 4 6 11:24 10
20 Bamber Bridge 12 2 4 6 16:31 10
21 Ilkeston 13 2 1 10 7:31 7
22 United of Manchester 11 1 3 7 14:22 6
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