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Guiseley vs Leek Town - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Weir L.
44' Event
Murphy K.
66' Event
Owen E.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division game between Guiseley and Leek Town finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Guiseley.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Guiseley
15%
Draws
27%
Leek Town
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Guiseley

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Guiseley come out ahead of Leek Town on wins alone.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Guiseley taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Guiseley Clean Sheet 16%
Leek Town Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guiseley Leek Town
Matches Played 34 29
Wins 23 12
Draws 6 8
Losses 5 9
Goals Scored 2.12 1.97
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 3, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Guiseley vs Leek Town
4:1
Dec 6, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Guiseley vs Leek Town
1:0
Sep 6, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Guiseley
4:0
Feb 22, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Guiseley
2:2
Dec 10, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Guiseley vs Leek Town
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guiseley Compare

Top Goalscorer Murphy K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Owen E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Leek Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Weir L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guiseley 84 / 100
Leek Town 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guiseley Leek Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guiseley Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Guiseley scored in 97% of their last 34 outings.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Recent resilience: Guiseley stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Leek Town's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Guiseley VS Leek Town
2 Goals Scored 2.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Guiseley

(Home)
03 Nov
Guiseley
4 : 1
Leek Town
31 Oct
Redcar Athletic
2 : 2
Guiseley
24 Oct
Warrington Rylands
1 : 3
Guiseley
20 Oct
Guiseley
2 : 1
Cleethorpes
17 Oct
Leiston
0 : 3
Guiseley
Page 1 of 7

Leek Town

(Away)
03 Nov
Guiseley
4 : 1
Leek Town
31 Oct
Curzon Ashton
2 : 1
Leek Town
27 Oct
Bury FC
5 : 3
Leek Town
24 Oct
Leek Town
4 : 1
Bootle
17 Oct
Lancaster
1 : 2
Leek Town
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Redcar Athletic 16 10 5 1 35:15 35
2 Cleethorpes 15 10 3 2 32:9 33
3 Guiseley 15 10 2 3 33:15 32
4 Curzon Ashton 16 10 1 5 30:18 31
5 Gainsborough 16 9 2 5 32:21 29
6 Avro 16 9 2 5 39:30 29
7 Workington 16 8 3 5 28:26 27
8 Warrington Rylands 15 8 2 5 27:22 26
9 Warrington Town 16 7 5 4 28:24 26
10 Bury FC 14 7 2 5 30:18 23
11 Alfreton 16 7 2 7 23:18 23
12 Lancaster 17 6 3 8 20:29 21
13 AFC Emley 17 5 5 7 19:28 20
14 Whitby 16 6 1 9 22:42 19
15 Quorn 15 4 6 5 27:32 18
16 Stockton 16 4 3 9 23:28 15
17 Hyde 16 4 3 9 15:30 15
18 Ashton United 16 3 5 8 18:21 14
19 Leek Town 16 3 5 8 31:37 14
20 Ilkeston 16 4 1 11 11:34 13
21 United of Manchester 16 2 6 8 20:27 12
22 Bamber Bridge 16 2 5 9 18:37 11
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