Sport Picks

Georgia

Liga 3 2024

FC Gardabani

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Guria play FC Gardabani in the Liga 3 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Guria averaged 2.03 goals scored and 1.65 conceded. FC Gardabani averaged 1.03 goals scored and 2.39 conceded. In past meetings, Guria won 1, FC Gardabani won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 16, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.94 for Guria and 1.00 for FC Gardabani. This points to a Guria double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Guria

22%

Draws

28%

FC Gardabani

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Guria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

Guria picked up more points recently compared to FC Gardabani.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.94 vs 1.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%

Over 1.5 Goals 81%

Over 2.5 Goals 64%

Over 3.5 Goals 38%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Guria Clean Sheet 23%

FC Gardabani Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 73%

Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Guria	FC Gardabani
Matches Played	31	31
Wins	14	7
Draws	4	5
Losses	13	19
Goals Scored	2.03	1.03
Goals Conceded	1.65	2.39
Expected Goals (xG)	3.25	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 Liga 3

Guria vs FC Gardabani

Possession: 59% - 44% Cards: 1 - 1

0:0

Oct 10, 2024 Liga 3

FC Gardabani vs Guria

Possession: 59% - 48% Cards: 2 - 1

3:0

Apr 18, 2024 Liga 3

Guria vs FC Gardabani

Possession: 42% - 43% Cards: 2 - 3

0:3

Aug 21, 2018 Liga 3

FC Gardabani vs Guria

Possession: 48% - 53% Cards: 0 - 1

1:2

Mar 25, 2018 Liga 3

Guria vs FC Gardabani

Possession: 53% - 55% Cards: 3 - 3

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guria Compare

Avg xG / game 2.5

Avg xA / game 1.63

FC Gardabani Compare

Top Goalscorer Mukhashavria G.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Patashuri S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guria 50 / 100

FC Gardabani 27 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Guria FC Gardabani

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Guria or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +19%

2.38

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +10.1%

1.72

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Guria attacking → ← attacking FC Gardabani

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guria scored in 55% of their last 31 games.

FC Gardabani let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Guria went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

FC Gardabani lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 26

3.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gonio	30	20	4	6	81:36	64
2	Meshakhte Tkibuli	30	18	6	6	54:22	60
3	Merani Martvili	30	17	7	6	60:30	58
4	Iberia 1999 2	30	15	10	5	52:26	55
5	Orbi	30	15	9	6	50:32	54
6	Gori	30	15	8	7	49:22	53
7	Merani Tbilisi	30	11	10	9	49:42	43
8	Betlemi Keda	30	12	5	13	49:61	41
9	Locomotive Tbilisi 2	30	12	4	14	47:58	40
10	FC Gardabani	30	9	7	14	42:41	34
11	FC Tbilisi 2025	30	9	6	15	46:54	33
12	Borjomi	30	8	4	18	31:58	28
13	Bakhmaro Chokhatauri	30	6	9	15	19:33	27
14	Zestafoni	30	6	11	13	32:49	26
15	Matchakhela	30	6	6	18	30:86	24
16	Guria	30	5	6	19	30:71	21