Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gurupi vs Uniao Carmolandense

Brazil Brazil

Tocantinense
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gurupi play Uniao Carmolandense in the Tocantinense. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gurupi averaged 1.09 goals scored and 0.91 conceded. Uniao Carmolandense averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.06 conceded. In past meetings, Gurupi won 2, Uniao Carmolandense won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 21, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Gurupi and 1.31 for Uniao Carmolandense. This points to a Uniao Carmolandense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Gurupi
31%
Draws
38%
Uniao Carmolandense
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Uniao Carmolandense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Gurupi picked up more points recently compared to Uniao Carmolandense.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Gurupi Clean Sheet 18%
Uniao Carmolandense Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gurupi Uniao Carmolandense
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 10 13
Draws 13 8
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.09 1.19
Goals Conceded 0.91 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Tocantinense
Uniao Carmolandense vs Gurupi
1:1
Mar 14, 2026 Tocantinense
Gurupi vs Uniao Carmolandense
1:2
Jan 31, 2026 Tocantinense
Gurupi vs Uniao Carmolandense
2:1
Feb 15, 2025 Tocantinense
Uniao Carmolandense vs Gurupi
0:3
Feb 10, 2024 Tocantinense
Gurupi vs Uniao Carmolandense
0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gurupi 32 / 100
Uniao Carmolandense 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gurupi Uniao Carmolandense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Uniao Carmolandense or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gurupi attacking → ← attacking Uniao Carmolandense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gurupi scored in 69% of their last 32 games.

Uniao Carmolandense let in goals in 55% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Gurupi went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Uniao Carmolandense lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 47
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tocantinopolis761010:119
2Uniao Carmolandense741212:513
3Gurupi741210:613
4Capital FC723210:99
5Araguaina72237:78
6Bela Vista-TO72238:148
7Palmas71244:105
8Guarai SC70253:122