Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gwangju FC vs Incheon

South Korea South Korea

K League 1 Gwangju Football Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Sub
Min Sang-Gi In: Gong B.
Out: Min Sang-Gi
17'
Ibiza J.
27'
Kim Gun-Hee

AI Match Summary

The K League 1 game between Gwangju FC and Incheon finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gwangju FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Gwangju FC
11%
Draws
80%
Incheon
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Incheon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Gwangju FC haven't matched Incheon's recent run of results.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Incheon taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Gwangju FC Clean Sheet 11%
Incheon Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gwangju FC Incheon
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 6 8
Draws 6 6
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 0.38 1
Goals Conceded 2.63 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 K League 1
Incheon vs Gwangju FC
4:0
Mar 7, 2026 K League 1
Gwangju FC vs Incheon
3:2
Oct 27, 2024 K League 1
Incheon vs Gwangju FC
1:0
Jul 14, 2024 K League 1
Gwangju FC vs Incheon
0:2
May 25, 2024 K League 1
Incheon vs Gwangju FC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gwangju FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Choi Kyoung-Rok
1 Goals
Assists Leader Shin Chang-Moo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Incheon Compare

Top Goalscorer Oh H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Seo Jae-Min
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gwangju FC 10 / 100
Incheon 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gwangju FC Incheon

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick INC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Incheon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 27 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Difficult form: Incheon registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Gwangju FC scored in 43% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Gwangju FC VS Incheon
0.38 Goals Scored 1
2.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 25%
50% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Seoul17113328:1236
2Jeonbuk1785425:1529
3Gangwon1777321:1128
4Pohang1784518:1428
5Ulsan Hyundai1783624:2427
6Anyang1758422:1923
7Incheon1763821:1921
8Jeju SK1755714:1720
9Bucheon FC 19951747614:1819
10Daejeon1746719:1818
11Gimcheon Sangmu17210517:2316
12Gwangju FC1715118:418