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Gwangju FC vs Jeju SK - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

South Korea South Korea

K League 1 Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Joung Ji-hun
40' Event
Oh Jae-Hyeok
Assist: Italo
45'
van Grunsven T.

AI Match Summary

Jeju SK in this K League 1 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jeju SK.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Gwangju FC
35%
Draws
37%
Jeju SK
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Jeju SK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Jeju SK lately — more wins on the board than Gwangju FC.
  • Model gives Gwangju FC a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular K League 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Gwangju FC Clean Sheet 16%
Jeju SK Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gwangju FC Jeju SK
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 3 13
Draws 9 8
Losses 17 8
Goals Scored 0.79 1.34
Goals Conceded 2.17 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 K League 1
Gwangju FC vs Jeju SK
0:1
Jul 26, 2026 K League 1
Gwangju FC vs Jeju SK
1:2
Mar 1, 2026 K League 1
Jeju SK vs Gwangju FC
0:0
Nov 2, 2025 K League 1
Gwangju FC vs Jeju SK
2:0
Aug 30, 2025 K League 1
Jeju SK vs Gwangju FC
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gwangju FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Joung Ji-hun
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Jeju SK Compare

Top Goalscorer Oh Jae-Hyeok
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kwon Gi-min
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gwangju FC 36 / 100
Jeju SK 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gwangju FC Jeju SK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jeju SK let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Gwangju FC stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Gwangju FC's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Gwangju FC VS Jeju SK
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gwangju FC

(Home)
11 Oct
Gwangju FC
4 : 3
Ulsan Hyundai
20 Sept
Jeonbuk
2 : 2
Gwangju FC
13 Sept
Gwangju FC
1 : 1
Anyang
09 Sept
Gwangju FC
0 : 1
Jeju SK
06 Sept
Gimcheon Sangmu
2 : 2
Gwangju FC
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Jeju SK

(Away)
10 Oct
Seoul
2 : 1
Jeju SK
20 Sept
Gangwon
0 : 1
Jeju SK
12 Sept
Bucheon FC 1995
2 : 2
Jeju SK
09 Sept
Gwangju FC
0 : 1
Jeju SK
05 Sept
Jeju SK
0 : 0
Ulsan Hyundai
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Seoul 31 20 5 6 58:26 65
2 Ulsan Hyundai 31 14 5 12 48:44 47
3 Gangwon 31 11 13 7 38:28 46
4 Jeju SK 31 12 10 9 36:31 46
5 Jeonbuk 31 11 11 9 39:30 44
6 Daejeon 31 11 10 10 48:38 43
7 Incheon 31 11 9 11 39:33 42
8 Anyang 31 10 11 10 39:47 41
9 Pohang 31 11 7 13 28:37 40
10 Gimcheon Sangmu 31 5 18 8 30:37 33
11 Bucheon FC 1995 31 7 11 13 31:42 32
12 Gwangju FC 31 2 12 17 25:66 18
Promotion - K League 1 (Championship Group)
Relegation - K League 1 (Relegation Group)