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Gwangju FC vs Jeju SK Prediction & H2H Stats

South Korea South Korea

K League 1 Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju
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Match Events

58'
Sub
Jeong Woon In: Yu In-Soo
Out: Jeong Woon
58'
Sub
Shin Sang-Eun In: Choi Byung-wook
Out: Shin Sang-Eun
59'
Sub
Shin Chang-Moo In: Joung Ji-hun
Out: Shin Chang-Moo

AI Match Summary

Jeju SK in this K League 1 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jeju SK.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

14%
Gwangju FC
35%
Draws
51%
Jeju SK
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Jeju SK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Jeju SK lately — more wins on the board than Gwangju FC.
  • Win probability leans Jeju SK's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular K League 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Gwangju FC Clean Sheet 15%
Jeju SK Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gwangju FC Jeju SK
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 2 13
Draws 10 9
Losses 17 8
Goals Scored 0.69 1.3
Goals Conceded 2.1 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 K League 1
Gwangju FC vs Jeju SK
0:1
Jul 26, 2026 K League 1
Gwangju FC vs Jeju SK
1:2
Mar 1, 2026 K League 1
Jeju SK vs Gwangju FC
0:0
Nov 2, 2025 K League 1
Gwangju FC vs Jeju SK
2:0
Aug 30, 2025 K League 1
Jeju SK vs Gwangju FC
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gwangju FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Jeju SK Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheus Aias
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gwangju FC 23 / 100
Jeju SK 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gwangju FC Jeju SK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jeju SK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jeju SK has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Gwangju FC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Gwangju FC scored in 52% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Gwangju FC VS Jeju SK
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gwangju FC

(Home)
20 Sept
Jeonbuk
2 : 2
Gwangju FC
13 Sept
Gwangju FC
1 : 1
Anyang
09 Sept
Gwangju FC
0 : 1
Jeju SK
06 Sept
Gimcheon Sangmu
2 : 2
Gwangju FC
30 Aug
Gwangju FC
2 : 5
Seoul
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Jeju SK

(Away)
20 Sept
Gangwon
0 : 1
Jeju SK
12 Sept
Bucheon FC 1995
2 : 2
Jeju SK
09 Sept
Gwangju FC
0 : 1
Jeju SK
05 Sept
Jeju SK
0 : 0
Ulsan Hyundai
30 Aug
Jeju SK
3 : 1
Daejeon
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Seoul 30 19 5 6 56:25 62
2 Ulsan Hyundai 30 14 5 11 45:40 47
3 Jeju SK 30 12 10 8 35:29 46
4 Jeonbuk 30 11 11 8 38:28 44
5 Gangwon 30 10 13 7 36:28 43
6 Daejeon 30 10 10 10 46:37 40
7 Pohang 30 11 7 12 28:34 40
8 Incheon 30 10 9 11 36:33 39
9 Anyang 30 9 11 10 38:47 38
10 Gimcheon Sangmu 30 5 18 7 30:36 33
11 Bucheon FC 1995 30 7 11 12 31:40 32
12 Gwangju FC 30 1 12 17 21:63 15
Promotion - K League 1 (Championship Group)
Relegation - K League 1 (Relegation Group)