Sport Picks

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Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai

South Korea South Korea

K League 1 Gwangju Football Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gwangju FC play Ulsan Hyundai in the K League 1. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gwangju FC averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. Ulsan Hyundai averaged 1.09 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, Gwangju FC won 2, Ulsan Hyundai won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jul 5, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Gwangju FC and 2.38 for Ulsan Hyundai. This points to a Ulsan Hyundai double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Gwangju FC
22%
Draws
43%
Ulsan Hyundai
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Ulsan Hyundai

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Gwangju FC picked up more points recently compared to Ulsan Hyundai.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 2.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Gwangju FC Clean Sheet 10%
Ulsan Hyundai Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 60%
Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gwangju FC Ulsan Hyundai
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 8 12
Draws 6 8
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 0.83 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.79 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.13 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 K League 1
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai
1:1
Apr 19, 2026 K League 1
Ulsan Hyundai vs Gwangju FC
5:1
Nov 22, 2025 K League 1
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai
2:0
Oct 18, 2025 K League 1
Ulsan Hyundai vs Gwangju FC
2:0
Jul 2, 2025 Korean Cup
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gwangju FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Moon Min-seo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Ulsan Hyundai Compare

Top Goalscorer Yago Cariello
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gwangju FC 34 / 100
Ulsan Hyundai 42 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gwangju FC Ulsan Hyundai

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ulsan Hyundai or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gwangju FC attacking → ← attacking Ulsan Hyundai

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gwangju FC scored in 48% of their last 29 games.

Ulsan Hyundai let in goals in 73% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Gwangju FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Ulsan Hyundai lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 44
0.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
3.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Seoul16112328:1235
2Jeonbuk1785425:1529
3Pohang1784518:1428
4Ulsan Hyundai1783624:2427
5Gangwon1676321:1127
6Incheon1663721:1821
7Anyang1648421:1920
8Jeju SK1654714:1719
9Bucheon FC 19951747614:1819
10Daejeon1645719:1817
11Gimcheon Sangmu17210517:2316
12Gwangju FC1715118:418