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Hafnarfjordur vs Keflavik

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Kaplakriki, Hafnarfjördur
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Ljubicic S.
27' Event
Gislason G.
34'
Gislason G.

AI Match Summary

The Besta deild karla game between Hafnarfjordur and Keflavik finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hafnarfjordur.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Hafnarfjordur
20%
Draws
23%
Keflavik
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Hafnarfjordur

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Keflavik carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Hafnarfjordur have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Hafnarfjordur Clean Sheet 17%
Keflavik Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hafnarfjordur Keflavik
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 11
Draws 10 6
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.37 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Besta deild karla
Hafnarfjordur vs Keflavik
2:1
Jun 14, 2026 Besta deild karla
Keflavik vs Hafnarfjordur
1:2
Feb 26, 2024 League Cup
Hafnarfjordur vs Keflavik
1:4
Jul 31, 2023 Besta deild karla
Keflavik vs Hafnarfjordur
2:3
May 8, 2023 Besta deild karla
Hafnarfjordur vs Keflavik
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hafnarfjordur Compare

Top Goalscorer Gislason G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Halldorsson K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Keflavik Compare

Top Goalscorer Ljubicic S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hafnarfjordur 31 / 100
Keflavik 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hafnarfjordur Keflavik

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Keflavik Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Keflavik conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Hafnarfjordur's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Hafnarfjordur has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Hafnarfjordur VS Keflavik
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Hafnarfjordur

(Home)
20 Sept
Hafnarfjordur
5 : 2
Stjarnan
13 Sept
Hafnarfjordur
3 : 0
KA Akureyri
06 Sept
Thor Akureyri
1 : 0
Hafnarfjordur
30 Aug
Hafnarfjordur
2 : 1
Keflavik
23 Aug
Akranes
1 : 1
Hafnarfjordur
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Keflavik

(Away)
20 Sept
Keflavik
2 : 2
Fram
14 Sept
Vikingur Reykjavik
4 : 1
Keflavik
05 Sept
Keflavik
1 : 2
Valur
30 Aug
Hafnarfjordur
2 : 1
Keflavik
23 Aug
Keflavik
1 : 0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 67:21 53
2 Fram 22 13 6 3 56:42 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 74:49 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 43:41 30
5 Akranes 22 8 6 8 39:41 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 33:38 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 42:50 28
8 Valur 22 8 3 11 39:45 27
9 Hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 27:39 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 22:50 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 35:48 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 32:45 18
Promotion - Besta deild karla (Championship Group)
Relegation - Besta deild karla (Relegation Group)