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Hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Kaplakriki, Hafnarfjördur
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Bjarnason J.
Assist: Halldorsson K.
21' Event
Gislason G.
Assist: Jonsson B.
32' Event
Halldorsson K.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Hafnarfjordur in this Besta deild karla matchup, with the score ending 5-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Hafnarfjordur.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Hafnarfjordur
20%
Draws
40%
Stjarnan
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Stjarnan lately — more wins on the board than Hafnarfjordur.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Hafnarfjordur taking it.
  • Regular Besta deild karla form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40.400000000000006%
Hafnarfjordur Clean Sheet 68%
Stjarnan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hafnarfjordur Stjarnan
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 7 14
Draws 11 5
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.32 1.91
Goals Conceded 1.77 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Besta deild karla
Hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan
5:2
Jul 3, 2026 Besta deild karla
Hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan
2:2
Apr 17, 2026 Besta deild karla
Stjarnan vs Hafnarfjordur
3:2
Sep 21, 2025 Besta deild karla
Stjarnan vs Hafnarfjordur
0:0
Jul 7, 2025 Besta deild karla
Hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hafnarfjordur Compare

Top Goalscorer Bjarnason J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gislason G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Stjarnan Compare

Top Goalscorer Waren B.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hafnarfjordur 59 / 100
Stjarnan 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hafnarfjordur Stjarnan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hafnarfjordur Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 6:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Stjarnan conceded in 88% of 32 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Hafnarfjordur's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Hafnarfjordur has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Hafnarfjordur VS Stjarnan
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Hafnarfjordur

(Home)
20 Sept
Hafnarfjordur
5 : 2
Stjarnan
13 Sept
Hafnarfjordur
3 : 0
KA Akureyri
06 Sept
Thor Akureyri
1 : 0
Hafnarfjordur
30 Aug
Hafnarfjordur
2 : 1
Keflavik
23 Aug
Akranes
1 : 1
Hafnarfjordur
Page 1 of 7

Stjarnan

(Away)
20 Sept
Hafnarfjordur
5 : 2
Stjarnan
13 Sept
Stjarnan
2 : 0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
06 Sept
Stjarnan
2 : 2
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
31 Aug
Breidablik
0 : 2
Stjarnan
23 Aug
Stjarnan
4 : 2
Thor Akureyri
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Valur 24 9 4 11 44:47 31
2 Stjarnan 24 9 4 11 46:55 31
3 Hafnarfjordur 24 6 9 9 35:41 27
4 KA Akureyri 24 6 5 13 38:51 23
5 Thor Akureyri 24 6 3 15 23:57 21
6 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 24 4 7 13 33:48 19
Relegation - Division 1 2027 (Main)