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Hafnarfjordur vs Valur

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Kaplakriki, Hafnarfjördur
Our Tip

Match Events

41'
Gudmundsson A.
48'
Gudjonsson J.
59'
Sub
Saevarsson R. In: Gudjohnsen A.
Out: Saevarsson R.

AI Match Summary

The Besta deild karla game between Hafnarfjordur and Valur finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hafnarfjordur.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Hafnarfjordur
30%
Draws
31%
Valur
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Hafnarfjordur

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Hafnarfjordur haven't matched Valur's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Hafnarfjordur's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Hafnarfjordur Clean Sheet 18%
Valur Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hafnarfjordur Valur
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 10
Draws 10 5
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.37 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.83 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Besta deild karla
Hafnarfjordur vs Valur
2:0
Apr 23, 2026 Besta deild karla
Valur vs Hafnarfjordur
3:0
Oct 19, 2025 Besta deild karla
Valur vs Hafnarfjordur
4:4
Jul 27, 2025 Besta deild karla
Valur vs Hafnarfjordur
3:1
May 4, 2025 Besta deild karla
Hafnarfjordur vs Valur
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hafnarfjordur Compare

Top Goalscorer Gislason G.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Valur Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hafnarfjordur 40 / 100
Valur 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hafnarfjordur Valur

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hafnarfjordur Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Valur let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Hafnarfjordur scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Hafnarfjordur remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Hafnarfjordur VS Valur
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 2.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Hafnarfjordur

(Home)
20 Sept
Hafnarfjordur
5 : 2
Stjarnan
13 Sept
Hafnarfjordur
3 : 0
KA Akureyri
06 Sept
Thor Akureyri
1 : 0
Hafnarfjordur
30 Aug
Hafnarfjordur
2 : 1
Keflavik
23 Aug
Akranes
1 : 1
Hafnarfjordur
Page 1 of 6

Valur

(Away)
20 Sept
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1 : 1
Valur
13 Sept
Valur
4 : 1
Thor Akureyri
05 Sept
Keflavik
1 : 2
Valur
30 Aug
Valur
2 : 2
Akranes
23 Aug
Vikingur Reykjavik
2 : 0
Valur
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 67:21 53
2 Fram 22 13 6 3 56:42 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 74:49 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 43:41 30
5 Akranes 22 8 6 8 39:41 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 33:38 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 42:50 28
8 Valur 22 8 3 11 39:45 27
9 Hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 27:39 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 22:50 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 35:48 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 32:45 18
Promotion - Besta deild karla (Championship Group)
Relegation - Besta deild karla (Relegation Group)