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Hajduk Split vs Ajax

Europe Europe

Conference League Stadion Poljud, Split
Thu, Oct 15, 2026
VS
04:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hajduk Split host Ajax in the Conference League. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Hajduk Split have averaged 2.29 scored and 1.04 conceded recently, against Ajax's 2.14 scored and 1.14 conceded. Past meetings favor Ajax slightly — 0-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 9, 2022, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 2.25 vs 1.88, favoring Hajduk Split. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Hajduk Split
20%
Draws
35%
Ajax
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Hajduk Split

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Hajduk Split carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Hajduk Split a 45% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 37%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Hajduk Split Clean Sheet 10%
Ajax Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hajduk Split Ajax
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 18 16
Draws 5 7
Losses 5 5
Goals Scored 2.29 2.14
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 9, 2022 Club Friendly
Ajax vs Hajduk Split
0:0
Mar 15, 1995 Champions League
Ajax vs Hajduk Split
3:0
Mar 1, 1995 Champions League
Hajduk Split vs Ajax
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hajduk Split 65 / 100
Ajax 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hajduk Split Ajax

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hajduk Split Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hajduk Split found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

Recent resilience: Hajduk Split stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Ajax let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Hajduk Split VS Ajax
2.88 Goals Scored 2.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Hajduk Split

(Home)
06 Sept
Rudes
0 : 4
Hajduk Split
31 Aug
Hajduk Split
2 : 0
Lok. Zagreb
27 Aug
Rakow Czestochowa
2 : 3
Hajduk Split
23 Aug
Hajduk Split
4 : 0
Osijek
20 Aug
Hajduk Split
2 : 2
Rakow Czestochowa
Page 1 of 6

Ajax

(Away)
05 Sept
Ajax
1 : 3
PSV
30 Aug
Telstar
0 : 4
Ajax
27 Aug
Ajax
5 : 3
Sion
20 Aug
Sion
2 : 4
Ajax
16 Aug
Ajax
2 : 2
Heerenveen
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mjallby 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Brighton 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Monaco 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Jablonec 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Gent 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 St. Truiden 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Twente 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Getafe 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 KuPS 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 CSKA Sofia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Hajduk Split 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Pafos 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Aarhus 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 FC Copenhagen 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 Midtjylland 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
19 Nordsjaelland 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
20 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
21 Brann 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
22 Braga 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
23 Hearts 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
24 Lugano 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
25 Crvena zvezda 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
26 Thun 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
27 Trabzonspor 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
28 Borac Banja Luka 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
29 Kairat Almaty 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
30 KF Egnatia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
31 Inter Escaldes 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
32 FK Kauno Zalgiris 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
33 Univ. Craiova 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
34 Iberia 1999 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
35 Lincoln Red Imps 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
36 Riga FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)