Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hajduk Split vs Varazdin

Croatia Croatia

HNL Stadion Poljud, Split
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hajduk Split host Varazdin in the HNL. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Hajduk Split have averaged 2.03 scored and 1.07 conceded recently, against Varazdin's 1.62 scored and 0.9 conceded. Past meetings favor Varazdin slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 2, 2026, ending 2:1. xG projections (1.75 - 1.00) back Hajduk Split to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Hajduk Split
35%
Draws
24%
Varazdin
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Hajduk Split

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Hajduk Split come out ahead of Varazdin on wins alone.
  • Model gives Hajduk Split a 41% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Hajduk Split Clean Sheet 20%
Varazdin Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hajduk Split Varazdin
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 19 17
Draws 5 6
Losses 6 6
Goals Scored 2.03 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 HNL
Varazdin vs Hajduk Split
2:1
May 3, 2026 HNL
Hajduk Split vs Varazdin
3:1
Feb 28, 2026 HNL
Varazdin vs Hajduk Split
1:1
Nov 29, 2025 HNL
Hajduk Split vs Varazdin
1:1
Sep 13, 2025 HNL
Varazdin vs Hajduk Split
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hajduk Split 40 / 100
Varazdin 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hajduk Split Varazdin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hajduk Split Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Hajduk Split scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Hajduk Split went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Varazdin has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Hajduk Split VS Varazdin
2.88 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Hajduk Split

(Home)
20 Sept
Rijeka
3 : 0
Hajduk Split
13 Sept
Hajduk Split
1 : 0
Slaven Belupo
08 Sept
Vardarac Vardaroc
0 : 2
Hajduk Split
06 Sept
Rudes
0 : 4
Hajduk Split
31 Aug
Hajduk Split
2 : 0
Lok. Zagreb
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Varazdin

(Away)
02 Oct
Aluminij
0 : 0
Varazdin
19 Sept
Varazdin
0 : 0
Osijek
14 Sept
HNK Gorica
2 : 2
Varazdin
09 Sept
Zagora
0 : 4
Varazdin
04 Sept
Varazdin
0 : 0
Istra 1961
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Din. Zagreb 7 5 1 1 17:9 16
2 Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16:8 16
3 Osijek 8 5 1 2 17:11 16
4 Varazdin 8 4 3 1 13:7 15
5 Rijeka 7 4 2 1 13:7 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 14:13 9
7 Lok. Zagreb 8 2 1 5 11:16 7
8 Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7:16 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5:12 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 10:24 4
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL 2027/2028 (Main)