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Hamburger vs VfB Stuttgart - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hamburger host VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: Hamburger at 1.38 goals for, 1.69 against; VfB Stuttgart at 2.63 for, 1.37 against. Past meetings favor VfB Stuttgart slightly — 1-4-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 12, 2026, ending 4:0. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 2.00, favoring VfB Stuttgart. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Hamburger
15%
Draws
51%
VfB Stuttgart
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: VfB Stuttgart

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and VfB Stuttgart come out ahead of Hamburger on wins alone.
  • VfB Stuttgart are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • VfB Stuttgart have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Hamburger Clean Sheet 10%
VfB Stuttgart Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hamburger VfB Stuttgart
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 16
Draws 8 5
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.38 2.63
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger
4:0
Nov 30, 2025 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs VfB Stuttgart
2:1
Jun 5, 2023 2. Bundesliga
Hamburger vs VfB Stuttgart
1:3
Jun 1, 2023 2. Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger
3:0
Aug 26, 2020 Club Friendly
VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamburger 10 / 100
VfB Stuttgart 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hamburger VfB Stuttgart

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VfB Stuttgart Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Hamburger scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

VfB Stuttgart let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Hamburger stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hamburger VS VfB Stuttgart
1.38 Goals Scored 2
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Hamburger

(Home)
04 Oct
Hamburger
2 : 0
FC Copenhagen
19 Sept
Hamburger
2 : 1
1. FC Koln
13 Sept
RB Leipzig
5 : 0
Hamburger
06 Sept
Hamburger
0 : 5
Mainz
29 Aug
Dortmund
2 : 0
Hamburger
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VfB Stuttgart

(Away)
01 Oct
VfB Stuttgart
5 : 0
Greuther Furth
25 Sept
VfB Stuttgart
3 : 0
Heidenheim
19 Sept
VfB Stuttgart
0 : 1
Dortmund
12 Sept
Hoffenheim
2 : 1
VfB Stuttgart
09 Sept
VfB Stuttgart
3 : 1
Viking
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dortmund 4 4 0 0 9:2 12
2 Bayern Munich 4 3 1 0 14:2 10
3 Freiburg 4 3 1 0 12:3 10
4 Augsburg 4 2 1 1 11:6 7
5 Bayer Leverkusen 4 2 1 1 10:5 7
6 Mainz 4 2 1 1 10:6 7
7 Elversberg 4 2 1 1 8:7 7
8 Werder Bremen 4 2 1 1 8:8 7
9 RB Leipzig 4 2 0 2 9:5 6
10 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 1 2 1 9:10 5
11 Schalke 4 1 2 1 3:4 5
12 Paderborn 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
13 1. FC Koln 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
14 Hoffenheim 4 1 0 3 7:10 3
15 VfB Stuttgart 4 1 0 3 6:9 3
16 Hamburger 4 1 0 3 2:13 3
17 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 4:17 1
18 B. Monchengladbach 4 0 0 4 6:16 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)