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Hamilton vs Queen of the South - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

League One ZLX Stadium, Hamilton
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Smith L.
Assist: Johnstone B.
23' Event
Ryan A.
34' Event
Ryan A.
Assist: McKinstry S.

AI Match Summary

The League One game between Hamilton and Queen of the South finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hamilton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Hamilton
15%
Draws
27%
Queen of the South
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hamilton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Hamilton come out ahead of Queen of the South on wins alone.
  • Hamilton are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular League One form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Hamilton Clean Sheet 20%
Queen of the South Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hamilton Queen of the South
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 20 8
Draws 4 8
Losses 4 12
Goals Scored 2.21 1.54
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 League One
Hamilton vs Queen of the South
4:1
Mar 14, 2026 League One
Hamilton vs Queen of the South
1:3
Dec 27, 2025 League One
Queen of the South vs Hamilton
4:1
Oct 24, 2025 League One
Hamilton vs Queen of the South
1:2
Aug 9, 2025 League One
Queen of the South vs Hamilton
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hamilton Compare

Top Goalscorer Ryan A.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Gallacher T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Queen of the South Compare

Top Goalscorer Smith L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamilton 85 / 100
Queen of the South 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hamilton Queen of the South

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hamilton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Hamilton scored in 89% of their last 28 outings.

Queen of the South's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Solid form: Hamilton remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Hamilton VS Queen of the South
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
0.25 Goals Conceded 2.5
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Hamilton

(Home)
03 Oct
Hamilton
2 : 1
Peterhead
26 Sept
Hamilton
3 : 0
Kilmarnock B
23 Sept
Hamilton
1 : 0
Cowdenbeath
19 Sept
Hamilton
4 : 1
Queen of the South
08 Sept
Spartans
0 : 4
Hamilton
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Queen of the South

(Away)
03 Oct
Queen of the South
4 : 3
Cove Rangers
26 Sept
Queen of the South
4 : 2
Rangers B
22 Sept
Queen of the South
1 : 1
Annan
19 Sept
Hamilton
4 : 1
Queen of the South
15 Sept
Ross County
8 : 0
Queen of the South
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ross County 9 8 1 0 31:5 25
2 Hamilton 9 8 1 0 21:2 25
3 East Kilbride 10 5 2 3 19:14 17
4 Montrose 10 5 0 5 13:19 15
5 Airdrieonians 10 3 4 3 9:13 13
6 Queen of the South 10 3 1 6 11:27 10
7 East Fife 10 1 6 3 8:11 9
8 Alloa 10 2 3 5 9:13 9
9 Peterhead 10 2 1 7 7:17 7
10 Cove Rangers 10 1 3 6 9:16 6
Promotion - Championship 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two 2027/2028 (Main)